“双碳”目标下“十四五”天然气发展机遇与挑战  

Carbon Neutrality Oriented 14th Five-Year Opportunities and Challenges of Natural Gas Development

作　　者：周淑慧[1] 孙慧[1] 梁严 昝光杰 刘勇[1] 刘晓娟[1] ZHOU Shuhui;SUN Hui;LIANG Yan;ZAN Guangjie;LIU Yong;LIU Xiaojuan(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院,北京100083

出　　处：《油气与新能源》2021年第3期27-36,共10页Petroleum and new energy

摘　　要：“双碳”目标下天然气发展面临新的机遇和挑战。对中国天然气行业的发展背景、现状、机遇、挑战等进行分析后认为:中国经济基本面长期向好,天然气需求内生增长空间广阔;油气体制机制改革关键性政策落地,为天然气行业发展开创了新局面;全球资源丰富、供应能力宽松,为中国扩大天然气利用提供了可能;“碳达峰”与“碳中和”新战略目标将加快能源清洁低碳转型,天然气在保障能源安全和结构转型中将起到重要支撑作用。但同时,减排压力将促使天然气消费提前进入达峰阶段;燃气发电面临风电和光伏发电高速发展的强烈冲击;交通领域天然气汽车发展受电动汽车及氢燃料电池车挤压;中国天然气勘探开发面临稳产上产难、成本高的严峻挑战;管网独立运营及多主体市场竞争格局对天然气产运销储平衡和宏观调控提出了更高要求。由此提出“增供应、严监管、强平台、全开放”的发展建议。This paper studies the opportunities and challenges for the development of natural gas in China aiming at carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Based on the analysis of China's favorable economic fundamentals and the development of natural gas industry,we identify the great potential for domestic natural gas demand,the sufficient supply of global gas resources,the new opportunities associated with the implementation of reform policies for oil and gas industry mechanism,and the supporting role of natural gas in"double carbon"oriented low-carbon and clean energy transition to ensure energy security.But we still confront the challenges of the ahead of time carbon peak for emission reduction,the strong impact of rapidly developed wind and photovoltaic power generation,more competitive electricity and hydrogen fueled vehicles,the high cost versus low production in domestic natural gas exploitation,and the difficulties for macro-control and balance of the production,transportation,sales and storage of natural gas associated with the contradiction of independently operated gas pipeline network versus competitive multi-market entities.Hence the proposed recommendations entail growing supply,more strict supervision,stronger platform and full openness.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳中和 天然气 机遇 挑战 

分 类 号：TE-9[石油与天然气工程]