全球价值链升级如何诱发国家间政治冲突——基于中国经验的分析  

An empirical analysis of the inter-state political conflicts induced by Global Value Chain Upgrading:Based on the case studyof China’s Global Value Chain Upgrading

作　　者：薛白雪 林吉双[1] Xue Baixue;Lin Jishuang

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《战略决策研究》2021年第4期3-21,103,共20页Journal of Strategy and Decision-Making

摘　　要：本文基于2007-2019年中国和主要国家政治关系与世界投入产出表数据进行实证分析,重点讨论全球价值链升级对政治冲突的诱发机制。结果表明国家安全最大化前提下,全球价值链升级的转移效应和挤出效应将引起贸易预期改变,诱发政治冲突;低技术制造业通过转移效应影响贸易预期,诱发政治冲突;高技术制造业受转移效应和挤出效应的双重作用影响贸易预期,诱发政治冲突。该研究不仅揭示了全球价值链分工变化与政治关系的互相作用机制,还为预测国际政治冲突提供了现实依据。Based on the data of the political relationships between China and other major countries as well as statistics ofthe world input-output table from 2007 to 2019,this paper conducts an empirical analysis on how global value chains(GVC)upgrading induce inter-state political conflicts.It shows that under the premise of maximizing national security,the transfer effect and crowding out effect of GVC upgrading would cause a change in trade expectations and hence induce political conflicts.For low-tech manufacturing industry,it is the transfer effect which influences trade expectation and then induces political conflicts.For High-tech manufacturing industry,both the transfer effect and crowding out effect leads to political conflicts.This study does not only reveal the causal mechanism between the change of GVC division of labor and international political relations,but also provides a realistic basis for China to foresee the rise of newinternational political conflicts.

关 键 词：全球价值链升级 政治冲突 贸易预期 转移效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] D50[经济管理—世界经济]