老龄化背景下区域人力资本经济效应及滞后性研究  

A Research on the Economic Effect and Lag of Regional Human Capital under the Background of Aging of a Society

作　　者：王云多[1] 马玉洁 WANG Yunduo;MA Yujie(School of Economics and Business Administration,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学经济与工商管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2021年第4期102-111,共10页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BRK016)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化已经成为制约我国经济增长的重要因素。为考察老龄社会中人力资本的经济效应,首先构建包含老龄化因素的内生增长理论模型,考察人力资本最优投资规模;其次采用我国2010—2018年面板数据,使用GMM等估计方法进一步检验人力资本对经济增长的贡献。检验结果表明,受老龄化因素制约,我国人力资本经济产出弹性低于物质资本经济产出弹性,即人口老龄化对人力资本经济效应和投资收益期产生抑制作用。为发挥人力资本对经济增长的促进作用,在老龄化日益严重的背景下,各地政府应结合自身经济要素禀赋和发展基础调整两类资本投资结构,以减轻老龄化造成的经济冲击。Population aging has become an important factor restricting China's economic growth.Firstly,in order to investigate the economic effect human capital in aging society,the endogenous growth theory model including aging factors is established to study the optimal scale of capital investment.Secondly,based on China's panel data from 2010 to 2018,this paper uses the GMM etc estimation methods to test the contribution of human capital to economic growth.The empirical conclusion is that with the restriction of aging,the economic output elasticity of human capital in China is lower than the economic output elasticity of physical capital,namely population aging have an negative impact on the economic effect of human capital and the investment return period.Under the background of increasingly serious aging,in order to promote the effect of human capital,local governments should adjust the two types of capital investment structure according to their own economic factor endowment and development foundation,so as to mitigate the economic impact caused by aging.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 人力资本 经济增长 区位决策 劳动力 人口结构 空间效应 

分 类 号：C971[经济管理—劳动经济]