新时代防控金融风险跨市场交叉网络传染机制研究  

Research on the Cross-market and Cross-network Contagion Mechanism of Preventing and Controlling Financial Risk in the New Era

作　　者：王俊勇 李心丹[1] 林良才 WANG Jun-yong;LI Xin-dan;Lin Liang-cai(School of Management and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;College of Engineering,National University of Singapore,Singapore 119077,Singapore Received:2018-09-25 Revised:2020-03-11 Published:2021-06-29)

机构地区：[1]南京大学工程管理学院,江苏南京210093 [2]新加坡国立大学工程学院,新加坡119077

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2021年第6期23-35,共13页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大中心联项目(U1811462);国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(70932003);国家自然科学基金重点国际(地区)合作研究项目(71720107001);南京大学博士研究生跨学科科研创新基金资助项目(2017cL07)。

摘　　要：文章基于习近平新时代中国特色社会主义金融思想与大数据时代背景,探讨了防控金融风险跨市场交叉网络传染机制。通过模型的理论推演及数值仿真模拟分析,研究结果表明:防控金融风险跨市场交叉传染主要取决于R0,其值越大,金融风险跨市场交叉传染越容易形成蔓延趋势;金融风险在各个金融子市场之间交叉传染蔓延趋势主要取决于β、δ、α、μ、γ等因素;仅采取事前防御措施或事后防控化解的金融风险防范措施都将缺乏效率,应从事前防御与事后化解两个层面统筹采取金融风险防范措施以提升防范金融风险跨市场交叉传染能力;在此基础上从三个层面提出了防控金融风险跨市场交叉网络传染机制,为构建金融风险救助机制预案以阻隔金融风险在各个金融子市场之间进一步交叉传染蔓延,实现新时代增强金融风险跨市场交叉传染防范与控制能力,更好的防范与化解系统性金融风险以助力打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战、维护国家金融安全的目标提供一定的借鉴与参考。With the continuous enhancement of the linkage and risk contagion among financial sub-markets,the ability of cross-contagion of financial risk across markets is also gradually increasing.Therefore,based on the Xi Jinping’s socialist financial thought with Chinese characteristics in the new era and the background of big data era,the SIRS model is used to explore the cross-market and cross-network contagion mechanism of preventing and controlling financial risk in the new era.Through the theoretical deduction of the model and the numerical simulation analysis,the research results show that(1)the cross-market and cross-contagion of preventing and controlling financial risk mainly depends on R0,the larger its value is,the easier the spreading tendency that the financial risk cross-market and cross-contagion will form;(2)the cross-contagion spreading tendency of financial risk among financial sub-markets mainly depends onβ、δ、α、μ、γand other factors;(3)the financial risk prevention measures,which only take the ex-ante defense measures or the post-event prevention and control measures,will be inefficient.Precautions against financial risk should be taken as a whole from the two layers of pre-defense and ex-post resolve so as to enhance the ability to prevent cross-market and cross-contagion of financial risk.On this basis,the cross-market and cross-network contagion mechanism of preventing and controlling financial risk from three levels are put forward.It can provide some references for building the financial risk rescue mechanism plan to block further cross-contagion and spread of financial risk among various financial sub-markets,achieving the goals of strengthening the ability of preventing and controlling cross-market and cross-contagion of financial risk in the new era,and better preventing and resolving systemic financial risk to help with fighting the battle of better preventing and resolving significant risk and safeguard national financial security.

关 键 词：新时代 金融风险 交叉网络传染 数值仿真模拟 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]