中国农业全要素生产率的再检验——基于省级面板数据农业中间消耗品的分析  

Re-testing the Total Factor Productivity of China’s Agriculture——Analysis of Agricultural Intermediate Consumables Based on Provincial Panel Data

作　　者：彭甲超 易明[1] 付丽娜[2] PENG Jia-chao;YI Ming;FU Li-na(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;International Education College,South Central University for Nation,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中南民族大学国际教育学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2021年第6期223-237,共15页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(19YJA630103);中国地质大学(武汉)中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(CUGQY1942);湖北省技术创新专项软科学研究项目(2019ADC099)。

摘　　要：提高农业全要素生产率(ATFP)是推进农业高质量发展的必然选择。通过引入农业中间消耗品,利用LP方法测算1999-2016年中国30个省市ATFP,并基于空间杜宾模型分析影响ATFP的关键因素。主要研究结论包括:ATFP对数值集中在[6.0,6.5]区间,总体呈现上升趋势,且存在σ收敛;全局Moran’s I指数低于0,即ATFP呈现空间负相关关系,其空间集聚效应减弱,但分布格局相对稳定;大部分省市ATFP的增长率总体呈现先升后降的变化趋势,部分省份明显存在多个峰值,尤以西部地区的省市最为明显;农村人力资本及农村金融发展水平对ATFP的影响系数显著为正,但仅农村人力资本的空间交互作用对本地区的影响显著,即农村人力资本有助于提升邻近地区的ATFP;农业地位、农业内部经济结构及农田受灾率的系数显著为负,但仅农业内部经济结构的空间溢出作用显著。Agriculture is an important basic industry of the national economy.Under the traditional agricultural production and management mode,the quality and allocation efficiency of China’s agricultural input factors have been at a low level for a long time,resulting in high agricultural production costs,low profits,and low income of farmers.Improving Agricultural Total Factor Productivity(ATFP)is not only an urgent need for the transformation of agricultural economic development mode,but also the key to the transition from a large agricultural country to a strong agricultural country.ATFP is mainly used to measure agricultural growth attributing to technological progress and organizational innovation.An increasing ATFP means the shifting of development mode from relying mainly on capital,labor,and land to relying mainly on technological advancement,factor allocation,and institutional mechanisms.Increasing the intermediate consumption of agriculture will help increase the output of agricultural products,activate the agricultural production materials market,and clarify the role of agricultural intermediate consumables in the ATFP,which is crucial for the transformation of the agricultural economic development mode.The agricultural intermediate consumables are introduced,the ATFP of 30 provinces and cities in China from 1999 to 2016 is calculated through LP method,and the key factors affecting ATFP are analyzed based on the SDM model.It is found that:(1)ATFP generally showed an upward trend during the sample period,and there wasσconvergence in the growth of ATFP.After 2000,the coefficient of variation of ATFP decreased,and the internal gap became narrowed,reaching"valley bottom"in 2011.(2)The ATFP global Moran’s I index is lower than 0,which is significant at the level of 1%,that is,ATFP presents a spatial negative correlation,and the overall trend shows a downward trend,which indicates that the spatial agglomeration effect of China’s agricultural development has weakened in recent years,and the spatial distribution

关 键 词：农业中间消耗 农业全要素生产率 影响因素 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济] F325