矿井涌水量预测方法适用性选择研究初探  

Preliminary Study on Applicability of Mine Water Inflow Forecasting Method

作　　者：张楠[1] 李皓冰[1] 杜凯[1] 郭欣伟[1] 李昭悦[1] ZHANG Nan;LI Haobing;DU Kai;GUO Xinwei;LI Zhaoyue(Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou,450003)

机构地区：[1]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,郑州450003

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2021年第7期103-106,共4页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0403505)。

摘　　要：我国矿井涌水量常用计算预测方法分为确定性和非确定性。受多种因素影响,计算方法的适用性并没有体现,导致预测误差偏大。通过梳理矿井涌水量主要影响因素,评价预测方法的特点及其局限性,明确勘探阶段、井巷开拓阶段、采掘阶段3个阶段预测方法的选取,构建矿井涌水量预测遵循的原则及预测过程框架体系,做到精准化预测,降低管理部门水资源论证审批风险,有助于实现矿井水变废为宝,完善企业矿井水综合利用管理,实现非常规水资源纳入水源统一配置,缓解水资源供需矛盾,提高区域水资源配置效率。The commonly used calculation and prediction methods of mine water inflow in China are divided into deterministic and non-deterministic.Affected by many influencing factors,the applicability of the calculation method has not been reflected,resulting in a large prediction error.By combing the main influencing factors of mine water inflow,the characteristics and limitations of evaluation prediction methods are evaluated,the selection of the three-stage prediction methods in the exploration phase,well development phase,and mining phase is clarified,the principles and prediction process framework of mine water inflow forecasting is constructed,and the precise forecasting is achieved to reduce the risk of approval of water resources demonstration by management departments,contribute to the realization of mine water waste into treasure,improve the management of comprehensive utilization of mine water,realize the integration of unconventional water resources into the unified allocation of water resources,alleviate the conflict between supply and demand of water resources,and to improve the efficiency of regional water resources allocation.

关 键 词：矿井涌水量 预测方法 适用条件 统一配置 

分 类 号：TD742.1[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]