Estimation and Long-term Trend Analysis of Surface Solar Radiation in Antarctica: A Case Study of Zhongshan Station  

作　　者：Zhaoliang ZENG Zemin WANG Minghu DING Xiangdong ZHENG Xiaoyu SUN Wei ZHU Kongju ZHU Jiachun AN Lin ZANG Jianping GUO Baojun ZHANG 

机构地区：[1]Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China [3]National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081,China [4]Wuhan Economic&Technological Development Zone(Hannan)Meteorological Services,Wuhan 430079,China

出　　处：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》2021年第9期1497-1509,共13页大气科学进展（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41941010,41771064 and 41776195);the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2016YFC1400303);the Basic Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant No.2018Z001)。

摘　　要：Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region.The fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008.In this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is constructed.Then,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is analyzed.The RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R^2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m^(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m^(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004.Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station.In addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station.The high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.

关 键 词：meteorological variables RF model estimated historical DGSR long-term trend analysis 

分 类 号：P422.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]