区域全面伙伴关系协定对我国农产品贸易的影响及对策——基于全球贸易分析模型的模拟分析  

RCEP Agreement's Influence on China's Agricultural Products Trade and Countermeasures——Simulation Analysis Based on Global Trade Analysis Model

作　　者：刘华辉[1] 张开翼[1] 曹嘉城 蒲清波 孙悦民 LIU Hua-hui;ZHANG Kai-yi;CAO Jia-cheng(School of Economics and Management,Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong)

机构地区：[1]广州中医药大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006 [2]广东海洋大学 [3]不详

出　　处：《江苏商论》2021年第7期45-48,56,共5页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

摘　　要：农产品贸易在我国与东盟为主的区域全面伙伴关系国家(RCEP)的贸易中占重要地位,本文基于中国与RCEP各国间农业贸易数据,运用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟分析RCEP生效后农产品贸易零关税的情况下,对我国整体经济和对农产品贸易的影响。分析结果表明,RCEP达成后不仅有利于我国经济增长和福利水平的提高,对我国农产品进出口贸易也呈积极作用,但少数弱势农产品将受到冲击。本文最后也提出相关建议,以平稳应对冲击,促进农业产业和农产品贸易健康、稳定、持续发展。Agricultural product trade occupies an important position in the trade between my country and ASEAN-based regional comprehensive partnership countries(RCEP).Based on the agricultural trade data between China and RCEP countries,this article uses the Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP)to simulate and analyze after the RCEP takes effect.The impact of zero tariffs on agricultural products trade on my country's overall economy and agricultural products trade.The analysis results show that after the RCEP is reached,it will not only benefit my country's economic growth and improvement of welfare,but also play a positive role in my country's agricultural import and export trade,but a small number of vulnerable agricultural products will be affected.At the end of this article,we also put forward relevant suggestions to smoothly respond to shocks and promote the healthy,stable and sustainable development of the agricultural industry and agricultural product trade.

关 键 词：RCEP协定 农产品贸易 GTAP模型 影响对策 

分 类 号：F752.4[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.7[经济管理—产业经济]