松涛水库入库洪水预报流溪河模型研究  

Study of Inflow Flood Forecasting of Songtao Reservoir Using Liuxihe Model

作　　者：陈玲舫 陈洋波[1] 李龙兵 李雪 张月圆 CHEN Ling-fang;CHEN Yang-bo;LI Long-bing;LI Xue;ZHANG Yue-yuan(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Water Conservancy Irrigation Management in Hainan Province,Haikou 571100,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [2]海南省水利灌区管理局,海南海口571100

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第7期81-85,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51961125206)。

摘　　要：为准确、可靠地预报松涛水库入库洪水,基于流域降雨量和下垫面物理特性,探讨了分布式水文模型流溪河模型在松涛水库入库洪水预报中的适用性。结果表明,流溪河模型在松涛水库流域对场次洪水有较好的模拟效果,34场洪水模拟的确定性系数均值达0.869,洪峰误差均值为0.1。以洪峰流量的20%作为许可误差,松涛水库预报方案合格率为79%,预报方案精度达到乙级,说明该模型可应用于松涛水库入库洪水预报。研究成果可为松涛水库防洪调度提供技术支持。In order to forecast inflow flood in Songtao reservoir accurately,based on rainfall data and terrain property data,the applicability of inflow flood forecasting was explored using the Liuxihe Model.The main conclusions are as follows.The Liuxi river model has a good effect on flood simulation of 34 events in Songtao reservoir basin,in which the average deterministic coefficient reaches 0.869 and the mean error of the peak flood is 0.1.Taking 20%of the peak flow as allowance error,the pass rate of the forecast scheme of Songtao Reservoir is 79%,reaching level B of forecast scheme’precision.Therefore,the Liuxi river model can be used to predict the inflow flood in Songtao reservoir.The study provides technical support for flood control operation of Songtao Reservoir.

关 键 词：洪水预报 分布式水文模型 流溪河模型 松涛水库 模型精度 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]