“南水北调”中线水源区可利用降水量时序分析--以十堰市为例  

Temporal Variation of Available Precipitation in the Water Source Area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project

作　　者：蔡晓雨 赵茂嵚 李卫朋[1,2] 陈忠升 税攀恒[1,2] 王瑞芳 唐梦滴 敬楠 高艺琳 CAI Xiao-yu;ZHAO Mao-qin;LI Wei-peng;CHEN Zhong-sheng;SHUI Pan-heng;WANG Rui-fang;TANG Meng-di;JING Nan;GAO Yi-lin(Land and Resources College,China West Normal University,Nanchong 637009,China;Research Center for Regional Environmental Evolution and Conservation,China West Normal University,Nanchong 637009,China;School of Earth Sciences,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Tiangong University,Tianjing 300380,China)

机构地区：[1]西华师范大学国土资源学院,四川南充637009 [2]西华师范大学区域环境演变与保护研究中心,四川南充637009 [3]云南大学地球科学学院,云南昆明650500 [4]天津工业大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300380

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2021年第6期1356-1365,共10页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：四川省教育厅项目(18ZA0476);西华师范大学英才科研基金项目(17YC112)、基本科研业务项目(15E002、16C003);区域文化研究中心年度项目(CQYYJC2101);国家级大学生创新创业项目(201810638054;201810638055;201910638025;S202010638090)。

摘　　要：可利用降水量的盈亏程度对于"南水北调"输水工程水源区和受水区的水资源、水环境和社会发展具有重要意义。基于4个气象站逐日数据计算地处"南水北调"水源区的十堰市1980~2019年可利用降水量,并利用Mann-Kendall方法和小波分析探讨40年间可利用降水量变化特点。研究表明:受十堰市40年间降水量减少和潜在蒸散发增多的影响,可利用降水量呈减少趋势,变化倾向率为42.796 mm/10a;年均和各季节可利用降水量均发生过突变,年可利用降水量突变发生在1991年前后;十堰市全年和各季节可利用降水量的显著变化周期均在5年以内。十堰市可利用降水资源日趋紧张,应充分利用好客水资源,提高水资源利用效率,保障"南水北调"输水工程平稳运行。The balance of available precipitation is of great significance to water resources, water environment and social development in the water source and water consumption areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Based on the daily data from 4 weather stations, the available precipitation ranged from 1980 to 2019 in Shiyan city, a typical city located in the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, was calculated;and the variation characteristics of the available precipitation in the study period were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method and wavelet analysis method. The results show that: due to the slight decrease of precipitation and the obvious increase of potential evapotranspiration in Shiyan city in the past 40 years, the available precipitation shows a decreasing trend(with a tendency rate 42.796 mm/10 a). Both the annual and seasonal available precipitation had abrupt changes, and the annual available precipitation had abrupt changes around 1991. The significant quasi-periodicity of annual and seasonal available precipitation in Shiyan city is within 5 years. The available precipitation resources in Shiyan city is increasingly tight, and it is necessary to make full use of foreign water resources, to improve the efficiency of water resources utilization, and to ensure the smooth operation of the water conveyance project of "South-to-North Water Diversion".

关 键 词：南水北调 十堰市 可利用降水量 MANN-KENDALL法 小波分析 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]