引入碳交易机制的新能源汽车发展路径研究  

Development Paths of New Energy Vehicles Incorporating CO Emissions Trading Scheme

作　　者：李文翔 李晔[2] 董洁霜[1] 李一鸣 Li Wenxiang;Li Ye;Dong Jieshuang;Li Yiming(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;College of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 2010804,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [2]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海201804

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2021年第6期1451-1465,共15页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52002244,71774118);上海市科技创新行动计划软科学项目(20692192200);上海市浦江人才计划(2020PJC083);上海市晨光计划(20CG55)。

摘　　要：中国新能源汽车进入"后补贴时代",亟需探索建立市场化发展的长效机制。引入道路交通碳交易机制替代财政补贴,形成市场化激励与惩罚机制,建立起燃油汽车反哺新能源汽车的市场机制。采用系统动力学解析道路交通碳交易机制影响新能源汽车发展的关键政策参数,构建基于多智能体的道路交通碳交易仿真模型,并对引入碳交易机制的新能源汽车发展路径进行仿真预测。结果表明:在各发展路径下,2030年和2050年的中国新能源汽车市场份额分别能够达到50%~85%和91%~98%,反映引入道路交通碳交易机制可以有效促进"后补贴时代"新能源汽车跨越式发展。New energy vehicles in China have entered the "post-subsidy era", and it is urgent to explore and establish a long-term mechanism for market-oriented development. The CO2 emission trading scheme for road transport(ETS-RT) is introduced to replace financial subsidies, forming a market-oriented incentive and punishment mechanism. Therefore, a market mechanism is established where internal combustion engine vehicles feed new energy vehicles. A causal loop diagram of system dynamics was used to analyze the key policy parameters of the ETS-RT that affect the development of new energy vehicles. Then a multi-agents-based model of ETS-RT is established to simulate the development paths of new energy vehicles incorporating ETS-RT. The results show that: the market share of new energy vehicles in 2030 and 2050 may reach 50%–85% and 91%–98% respectively under the development paths. It reflects that the introduction of ETS-RT can effectively promote the leaping development of China’s new energy vehicles in the "post-subsidy era".

关 键 词：新能源汽车 碳交易机制 多主体协同 智能体建模与仿真 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] U469.7[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]