气象因素影响下中国手足口病时空特征及聚类分析  

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Cluster Analysis of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease(HFMD)in China Influenced by Meteorological Factors

作　　者：谢玲[1,2] 王宏卫 刘素红[2,3] 高一薄 伊素燕[2] 马晨 XIE Ling;WANG Hongwei;LIU Suhong;GAO Yibo;YI Suyan;MA Chen(College of Environment and Resources, Guangxi Normal University, Guilin 541004,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046,China;Department of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学环境与资源学院,桂林541004 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046 [3]北京师范大学地理学部,北京100875

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2021年第2期55-62,共8页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(4186010245)。

摘　　要：以中国手足口病疫情平发年2017年为例,探讨气象因素对中国手足口病(hand foot and mouth disease,HFMD)发病的时空影响,并对各省、自治区、直辖市(以下称各地)中心城市手足口病发病类型进行划分。本研究采用聚类分析、空间自相关等方法分析2017中国各地中心城市气象(气温、降水)因素对手足口病发病影响及其时空分异。结果表明:(1)在时间上,2017年中国各地中心城市手足口病发病有明显的季节差异,年内有单峰发病模式和双峰(高低峰、双高峰)发病模式;(2)2017年中国各地中心城市手足口病月发病率分别与年均降水量、年均温,呈二次函数关系(R^(2)=0.6623)和指数函数关系(R^(2)=0.6469);(3)基于各地中心城市2017年手足口病发病率数据,用系统聚类法将上述城市的手足口病发病聚为8类;(4)在空间上,2017年中国各省、市手足口病发病表现为东南各省市发病率高,西北各省市发病率低的特点,并随降水量由东南向西北呈现递减趋势,且2017年2月、4月、12月各地中心城市手足口病发病率有显著的空间相关。气象因素对中国手足口病发病存在影响,中国手足口病发病在时间和空间上均存在显著差异,系统聚类分析结果在宏观尺度上可为手足口病防控提供参考。Taking the year of 2017 as an example,when the hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)epidemic was normal,to explore the spatial and temporal effects of meteorological factors on HFMD incidence in China.We classified the incidence types of HFMD in central cities of provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities(hereinafter referred to as regions).Cluster analysis,spatial autocorrelation and other analysis methods were adopted.Results show that:(1)In temporal scale,the incidence of HFMD has significant seasonal differences in central cities in 2017,with single peak incidence pattern and double peak incidence pattern(high-low peak,double high peak).(2)The monthly incidence of HFMD in central cities was correlated with the average annual precipitation and average annual temperature,respectively,showing a quadratic function(R^(2)=0.6623)and an exponential function(R^(2)=0.6469)in 2017.(3)Based on the incidence data of HFMD in central cities in 2017,the above cities were clustered into 7 categories by systematic clustering method.(4)In spatial scale,the incidence of HFMD in was characterized by high incidence in southeast provinces or cities and low incidence in northwest provinces or cities,and showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest with precipitation.Moreover,there was a significant spatial correlation between the incidence of HFMD in central cities in February,April and December in 2017.Meteorological factors have an impact on the incidence of HFMD in China,and the incidence is significantly different.

关 键 词：手足口病 气象因素 聚类分析 空间相关分析 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学] K90[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]