职工基本养老保险个人账户长寿风险及其估计  

A Study on the Longevity Risk of the Personal Account of Basic Pension Insurance for Employees and Its Estimation

作　　者：杨一心[1,2] Yang Yixin(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Center of Social Welfare and Governance,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学民生保障与公共治理研究中心,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2021年第3期224-239,共16页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJCZH219);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71904172)。

摘　　要：中国已进入长寿时代,长寿风险是学界研究各类养老金制度持续关注的重点。现行职工基本养老保险制度采用社会统筹与个人账户相结合的模式,这一特殊的制度设计使个人账户长寿风险更值得重视。从风险形成及传导机理来看,风险源主要是个人账户制度设计存在缺陷,在记账利率虚高、待遇捆绑调整等政策因素的影响下,人口老龄化导致基金缺口的效应进一步放大。未来全国个人账户基金收支平衡面临较大压力,将对职工基本养老保险制度整体的可持续运行构成挑战。建议科学确定个人账户记账利率,改革养老金计发办法,建立计发月数动态调整机制,通过"统账分离"将个人账户改造为职业年金,促进多层次养老金体系的发展。Since 1997, the basic pension insurance for employees in China has followed the model of"social pooling and personal accounts". After more than 20 years of operation, the number of beneficiaries has continued to expand, and the level of benefits has increased year by year, which has effectively guaranteed the basic livelihood of retirees. But at the same time, we need to note that the financial sustainability of employee basic pension insurance has begun to arouse the attention of the whole society. Especially in recent years, China’s problem of population aging has been growing, the average life expectancy has continued to increase, and the employee’s basic pension insurance dependency ratio has been decreasing year by year. The pay-as-you-go pension insurance system is facing challenges. The original intention of setting up personal accounts was to make up for the inadequacies of the pay-as-you-go model for the aging population, and to resolve longevity risks through a model of fund accumulation. Therefore, it is necessary to re-evaluate the policy design and practical operation effects of the basic pension insurance personal accounts for employees, especially the role it played in dealing with longevity risks.This paper starts from the design of the personal account system of basic pension insurance for Chinese employees and systematically expounds the formation and transmission mechanism of longevity risks for personal accounts. The so-called longevity risk refers to the financial risk of the fund caused by the inconsistency between the actual lifespan of the insured group and the life expectancy set by the mechanism design of current personal account. In the event of personal account longevity risk,the"risk source"is mainly a series of flaws in the design of the personal account system. The"risk transmission path"is mainly due to such factors as life span elongation and the personal account foundations not being able to pay off."Risk amplification station"is mainly in the operation of the system, when a

关 键 词：职工基本养老保险 个人账户 长寿风险 精算平衡 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]