中国旅游业鲍莫尔成本病实证检验  

An Empirical Investigation of Baumol’s Cost Disease Hypothesis in the Tourism Industry of China

作　　者：张晨 左冰[1] ZHANG Chen;ZUO Bing(School of Tourism Management,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学旅游学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《旅游科学》2021年第3期42-61,共20页Tourism Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“旅游发展与经济增长关系研究”(16BJY139)。

摘　　要：文章使用2002—2018年中国29个省(区、市)的面板数据,证明中国旅游发展并没有导致鲍莫尔成本病假说所预测的后果,原因是由劳动异质性引致的“价格传导阻滞”现象阻断了社会劳动生产率正向带动旅游相对价格上涨的路径,中国剩余劳动力不断流向旅游业进一步强化了这一机制。伴随旅游业的转型升级,以互联网为代表的信息与通信技术的发展促使旅游业开始逐步显现“进步”特征,旅游市场经济中价格机制的增强使“刚性”旅游需求逐渐恢复弹性,从而杜绝了旅游业成本病的发生。文章既肯定了旅游业在中国技术进步过程中的“就业压舱石”功能,也揭示出伴随人口红利消失,推动生产率提升实现高质量增长是中国旅游业可持续发展的必然选择。政策层面上中国应该充分发挥旅游价格竞争优势,推进旅游市场经济建设,提升旅游人力资本水平,发挥信息与通信技术对现代旅游业的助推作用,进一步促使中国旅游业向“进步”部门转型。This paper examined the Baumol’s Cost Disease hypothesis inference in China’s tourism industry by using the panel data covering 29 provinces(cities)in China's Mainland ranging from 2002 to 2018.The results show that tourism development did not lead to the consequences predicted by Baumol.The increase of labor productivity in the progressive sector has led to the shift of dismissed labors to tourism,which has hindered the transfer of price rising pressure from the progressive sector to tourism sector,and a large amount of low-skilled surplus labor transfer to tourism sector has further promoted the process.In the context of acceleration in tourism transfer upgrading,Information and Communications Technology(ICT)such as Internet development has prompted tourism transfers to a progressive sector.In addition,tourism demand has become more elastic,which has avoided the Cost Disease.The research further confirmed that tourism can serve as a“labor pool”in the process of industrial upgrading,but,the lower-productivity labors transferred from the progressive sector will reduce to an extent the growth of technological progress of tourism industry.Therefore,promoting productivity improvement to achieve high-quality growth is an inevitable choice for the sustainable development of tourism industry.At policy level,China should promote modern tourism industry development by making full use of its competitive advantages in tourism prices,promoting the tourism market economy,improving the tourism human capital,and promoting the ICT development in future.

关 键 词：鲍莫尔成本病 服务经济 生产率 劳动异质性 价格效应 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]