美国盟国华为5G政策的政治逻辑  

Explaining US Allies’Policies Towards Huawei 5G Technology

作　　者：孙学峰[1] 张希坤 Sun Xuefeng;Zhang Xikun(Institute of International Relations,Tsinghua University;Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系研究院,北京100084 [2]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2021年第6期110-137,159,160,共30页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委重大项目“国家安全管理的决策体系基础科学问题研究”(项目批准号:71790613)的部分成果。

摘　　要：数字技术竞争是中美战略竞争的核心领域。为遏制华为5G技术的全球拓展,美国不遗余力地动员和敦促其盟国共同抵制华为。不过,面对美国的动员和压力,美国盟国的政策选择呈现出较为明显的差异。通过融合国内和国际政治因素,作者提出了解释美国盟国华为5G政策的分析框架和逻辑机制,发现是否认为中美威胁政权安全是首要影响因素。如果盟国认为美国对其政权安全构成威胁,这些国家将接受华为5G;一旦美国盟国形成中国"威胁"其政权安全的认知,相关盟国会禁止华为5G。对于未感受到美国或中国"威胁"其政权安全的美国盟国,其华为5G政策主要取决于相关国家对中美国际秩序取向的态度。具体而言,不认可美国国际秩序取向或者对中美国际秩序取向持中性立场的美国盟国将接受华为5G,而不认可中国国际秩序取向的美国盟国会委婉禁止华为5G(即政府未明确禁止但电信运营商并未选用)。这些发现丰富了对中美战略竞争的理论认识,在一定程度上深化了数字时代大国竞争与国际秩序转型的理论积累。The past years have witnessed the intensified competition over digital technology between the United States and China.To curb the global expansion of Huawei’s5 G technology,the United States has spared no effort to mobilize and urge its allies to boycott Huawei.Under the pressure from the United States,however,the policies towards Huawei 5 G of these allies display significant variations.Integrating the perceptions of regime security and international order transformation,we develop an innovative framework to explain the variations of the US allies’policies towards Huawei 5 G,and find that US allies’perception of regime security is the primary causal factor.Specifically,a US ally will ban/accept Huawei 5 G if it perceives that China/US is posing threat to its regime security.For those allies that have perceived neither China nor the United States as a threat to their regime security,their policies towards Huawei 5 G are mainly decided by their attitudes to the strategic orientation of China and the United States to shape the evolving international order.To be more specific,the US allies that do not recognize the US’strategic orientation or have a neutral stance towards the strategic orientation of both China and the United States will accept Huawei 5 G,while the US allies that do not recognize the strategic orientation of China will euphemistically ban Huawei 5 G(that is,the government has not explicitly prohibited Huawei 5 G,but telecom operators did not choose it).These findings have theoretical implications for understanding how a third party responds to the strategic competition between China and the United States in the emerging digital age.

关 键 词：中美战略竞争 美国同盟体系 华为5G 政权安全 国际秩序 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]