基于Bayes网络的装备多阶段任务系统可靠性建模与评估研究  

Reliability Modeling and Assessment for Phased-Mission System of Equipment Based on Bayes Network

作　　者：杜海东 曹军海 刘福胜 DU Haidong;CAO Junhai;LIU Fusheng(Department of Equipment Support and Remanufacture of Army Academy of Armored Forces,Beijing 100072,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军装甲兵学院装备保障与再制造系,北京100072

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2021年第6期170-174,共5页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

摘　　要：针对装备使用过程中多阶段任务问题和传统系统可靠性分析方法在模型构建和求解中存在的不足,基于Bayes网络构建了装备系统多任务阶段的可靠性模型,研究了各阶段系统任务可靠度和假设系统故障下各部件故障概率计算方法。分析了多阶段任务系统时间依赖性特点;研究了故障树模型向Bayes网络模型转换过程,基于Bayes网络的双向推理原理提出了多阶段任务系统可靠性以及部件重要性推算算法;结合某型步战车实际任务过程,开展了多阶段任务可靠度和部件故障概率的推断,从而为装备任务过程中的维修决策提供技术支撑。There are several questions using conventional way for equipment reliability analysis in modeling and solving under the phased-mission,an algorithm based on Bayes network was presented,and the calculation methods of mission reliability and failure probability of components under the assumption of system failure during each stage were studied.The time dependence of the multi-phased mission system was analyzed;The transformation process from the fault tree model to the Bayes network model was studied.Based on the two-way reasoning principle of the Bayes network,the calculation algorithm of the reliability of the multi-phased mission system and the importance of the components was proposed;The reliability and the failure probability of the multi-phased mission were developed in combination with the actual task process of a certain type of infantry vehicle,which used to provide technical support for maintenance decision-making in the process of operation.

关 键 词：BAYES网络 装备 多阶段任务 可靠性 建模与评估 

分 类 号：TJ391.9[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]