天然气管网系统性能评价指标及方法研究进展  

Research Progress on Performance Evaluation Index and Method of Natural Gas Pipeline Network System

作　　者：廖柯熹 王敏安 杨建英 彭浩 何国玺 冷吉辉 李裕民 LIAO Ke-xi;WANG Min-an;YANG Jian-ying;PENG Hao;HE Guo-xi;LENG Ji-hui;Li Yu-min(State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Development Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China;School of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China;Sichuan Changning Natural Gas Development Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610100, China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室,成都610500 [2]西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院,成都610500 [3]四川长宁天然气开发有限责任公司,成都610100

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2021年第14期5630-5640,共11页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51674212)。

摘　　要：目前中国对天然气的需求与消费扩大,天然气管网建设势必要加快。天然气管网系统在服役过程中的事故率和安全风险难以控制,从而会极大影响天然气管网供应格局的形成。近年来,中外对天然气管网系统的性能评价指标及方法已经取得了大量的研究成果,但是中国油气管道领域的应用实例仍然较少,未形成一套完整的、全面的天然气管网系统性能评价指标及方法体系。通过总结现有研究成果发现,管网结构可靠性评价主要是采用故障树分析、蒙特卡洛模拟方法来计算管网系统的失效概率,从而量化管网系统的可靠性。管网供气可靠性评价主要是基于概率统计方法,建立天然气管网系统日需求-日供给干涉模型,并结合TGNET软件或蒙特卡洛模拟法,求解出管网系统的供气可靠度;管网经济性评价主要侧重于投资估算和财务评价;管网适应性评价主要是通过模拟软件建立管网水力计算模型,从而分析管网在不同工况下的输送效率。同时也指明了建立管网系统评价模型、划分评价指标等级是未来的研究重点;采用极限状态设计理论,并准确计算管网系统发生失效或故障的概率是未来的研究难点。以上综述内容对于开展天然气管网系统性能评价指标及方法的理论研究与现场应用具有一定的借鉴价值。At present,the demand and consumption of natural gas in China are expanding,and the construction of natural gas pipeline network is bound to accelerate.The accident rate and safety risks of the natural gas pipeline network system during service are difficult to control,which will greatly affect the formation of the natural gas pipeline network supply pattern.In recent years,a large number of research results have been obtained on the performance evaluation indicators and methods of natural gas pipeline network systems in China and other countries,but there are still few application examples in the field of oil and gas pipelines in China,and a complete and comprehensive set of performance evaluation indicators and methods system of natural gas pipeline network system has not been formed.By summarizing the existing research results,it can be found that the reliability evaluation of pipe network structure mainly uses fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the failure probability of the pipe network system,thereby quantifying the reliability of the pipe network system.The gas supply reliability evaluation of the pipeline network is mainly based on the probability and statistics method to establish the daily demand-daily supply interference model of the natural gas pipeline network system,and combine the TGNET software or Monte Carlo simulation method to solve the gas supply reliability of the pipeline network system.The economic evaluation of pipeline network mainly focuses on investment estimation and financial evaluation,the evaluation of pipeline network adaptability is mainly to establish the hydraulic calculation model of pipeline network through simulation software,so as to analyze the transmission efficiency of pipeline network under different working conditions.At the same time,it is pointed out that the establishment of the pipeline network system evaluation model and the classification of evaluation index levels are the focus of future research,the use of limit state design theory and a

关 键 词：天然气管网系统 可靠性 经济性 适应性 评价指标及方法 

分 类 号：TE977[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]