近60年三江平原夏季强降水日数气候变化特征及其影响因子研究  

Study on climatic change characteristics and influencing factors of summer heavy rainfall days in Sanjiang Plain in recent 60 years

作　　者：邹立尧[1] 国世友[2] 赵秀兰 ZOU Liyao;GUO Shiyou;ZHAO Xiulan(Meteorological Cadre Continuing Education and Training Institute,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Heilongjiang Meteorological Observatory,Harbin 150030,China;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [2]黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨150030 [3]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《东北农业大学学报》2021年第6期45-55,共11页Journal of Northeast Agricultural University

基　　金：中国气象局气象干部培训学院山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程2017年建设项目;2019年国家气象中心气象现代化专项(QXXDH201917)。

摘　　要：利用1961~2019年三江平原国家气象站和农垦气象站夏季逐日降水观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR资料,分析三江平原夏季强降水日数气候变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明,三江平原夏季强降水日数年际变化显著,气候平均分布空间差异明显。近60年夏季强降水日数总体呈增多趋势,其中最多年10.7 d(1994年)比最少年2.1 d(1977年)多8.6 d。1961~2019年,夏季强降水日数较气候平均值偏少年份多、偏多年份少。鄂霍茨克海高压偏强有利于三江平原夏季强降水日数偏多,偏弱有利于强降水日数偏少。三江平原夏季强降水日数异常年,中高纬度高空急流存在差异;8月高空急流偏强有利于强降水日数偏多。三江平原夏季强降水日数异常年,西太平洋副热带高压强度、位置在6~8月存在差异。Based on the daily precipitation observation data of national meteorological station and agricultural reclamation meteorological station in Sanjiang Plain during 1961-2019 and NCEP/NCAR data,the climate change characteristics and influencing factors of heavy rainfall days in summer in Sanjiang Plain were analyzed.The results showed that the interannual variation of the number of heavy rainfall days in summer in Sanjiang Plain was significant,and the spatial difference of its mean distribution of climate was obvious.In recent 60 years,the number of summer heavy rainfall days showed an increasing trend,in which the most 10.7 days(1994)was 8.6 days more than the least 2.1 days(1977).During 1961-2019 there were more years in which the number of heavy rainfall days in summer less than the climatic average,and fewer years in which the number of heavy rainfall days in summer more than the climatic average.The strong Okhotsk Sea High was favorable to more summer heavy rainfall days in Sanjiang Plain,while the weak Okhotsk Sea High was favorable to less summer heavy rainfall days.In the abnormal years of summer heavy rainfall days in Sanjiang Plain,the upperlevel jet stream in middle and high latitudes was different.The stronger upper-level jet stream in August was conducive to the more summer heavy rainfall days in the Sanjiang Plain.The intensity and location of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in June,July and August were different in anomalous years of summer heavy rainfall days in Sanjiang Plain.

关 键 词：三江平原 强降水日数 气候变化特征 影响因子 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]