环境规制背景下生猪产业转移对农业结构调整的影响  

Impact of hog industry transfer on the adjustment of agricultural structure under the background of environmental regulations

作　　者：曾昉 李大胜[1] 谭莹[1] ZENG Fang;LI Dasheng;TAN Ying(School of Economics and Management,South China Agriculture University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510642,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2021年第6期158-166,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“环境规制下生猪产业区域布局与转移:路径、机理及溢出效应”(批准号:71973046);广东省自然科学基金面上项目“减排背景下的广东省生猪转移与溢出效应”(批准号:2019A1515011479);广东省现代农业产业体系生猪创新团队(批准号:2019KJ26);华南农业大学博士生国(境)外联合培养项目(批准号:2019LHPY007)。

摘　　要：生猪养殖是中国农牧领域的核心产业,随着养殖规模的扩大,生猪生产带来的污染问题也成为社会各界广泛关注的热点。近年来,中央政府相继出台了一系列环境政策法规,明确提出要防治畜禽养殖污染。环境规制的出现不仅会直接增加养殖户成本,影响生猪生产,还会间接影响到猪肉消费端。目前,面对愈发严格的环境规制标准,探讨如何保持现有生猪生产规模,解决以后在何处生产,成为生猪行业未来发展的重要问题。文章利用2004-2018年30个省份的平衡面板数据,实证考察了环境规制背景下中国生猪产业的区域转移及由此带来的农业结构调整效应。研究发现:①2004-2018这15年间,环境规制较强的经济发达地区的生猪产业占比均有了一定下降,生猪产业空间布局正在逐步发生改变。②环境规制对生猪出栏量比例所表示的产业转移变量存在显著负向影响。环境规制强度越高,各地生猪出栏量占全国总量的比例越低。此外,环境规制有利于农业结构调整优化。③在产业转移与环境规制的交互项中,计量模型的交互项系数均与产业结构调整系数呈现负相关的关系,说明当两者同时存在时,同样会加速农业结构调整。基于研究结果,文章提出了持续优化生猪产业布局,实行弹性环境政策,兼顾考虑农业结构调整等政策建议。Hog farming is the core industry in China’s agriculture and animal husbandry.With the expansion of the scale of farming,the pollution caused by hog production has also become a hot spot of widespread concern.In recent years,the central government has successively promulgated a series of environmental policies and regulations,expressing the need to prevent and control pollution from livestock and poultry farming.The emergence of environmental regulations will not only directly increase the cost of farmers and affect the production of hogs,but also indirectly affect pork consumption.At present,in the face of increasingly stringent environmental regulations,how to maintain the current scale of hog production and where hog production is conducted after solving this maintenance problem have become important issues for the future development of the hog industry.This study used the balanced panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018 to examine the regional transfer of China’s hog industry and the resulting adjustment of the agricultural industry structure in the context of environmental regulations.The results found that:①During the 15 years from 2004 to 2018,the proportion of the hog industry in economically developed regions with strong environmental regulations declined to a certain extent,and the spatial layout of the hog industry was gradually changing.②Environmental regulation had a significant negative impact on the industrial transfer variable expressed by the proportion of hog slaughter;the higher the intensity of environmental regulation,the lower the proportion of hog production in the country’s total.In addition,environmental regulations were also conducive to the adjustment and optimization of agricultural structure.③In the interaction terms between industrial transfer and environmental regulation,the interaction term coefficients of the econometric model all showed a negative correlation with the industrial structure adjustment coefficient.This result showed that the coexistence of e

关 键 词：环境规制 区域转移 产业结构 生猪养殖 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]