基于Maxent模型预测褐云玛瑙螺在我国的潜在地理分布  

Potential geographical distribution of Achatina fulica in China based on Maxent model

作　　者：马玉斌 周洪利 胡玥 周旻昱 吕志跃[1,2] MA Yu-bin;ZHOU Hong-li;HU Yue;ZHOU Min-yu;LV Zhi-yue(Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control of Ministry of Education,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080;NHC Key Laboratory of Control of Tropical Diseases(Hainan Medical University),Haikou,Hainan,571199,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学热带病防治研究教育部重点实验室,广东广州510080 [2]海南医学院热带病防治国家卫生健康委员会重点实验室,海南海口571199

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2021年第5期535-539,590,F0002,共7页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82072303,81572023);海南省重大科技计划项目(ZDKJ202003);海南省重点研发计划项目(ZDYF2020120);中国国家寄生虫资源库项目(NPRC-2019-194-30);广东省自然科学基金(2019A1515011541);广东省科技计划项目(2019B030316025);海南医学院热带转化医学教育部重点实验室开放基金项目(2020TTM007);111计划(B12003)。

摘　　要：目的通过Maxent模型的建立,预测褐云玛瑙螺在当前和未来气候变化的情况下在我国的地理分布,为监测和消灭这种入侵生物提供依据。方法应用生物信息学的研究方法,采集数据库中和现场采样的信息,利用世界范围内足够数量的分布点信息建立模型,计算得到褐云玛瑙螺在我国各地区的分布潜力。结果获得了精度极高的预测模型,当前气候条件下褐云玛瑙螺的适生区面积达到了196.5×10^(4)km^(2),占国土面积的20.4%,包括了长江以南和横断山脉群以东的陆地省份,以及台湾省和海南省的全部。高中低适生区的面积分别为28.1×10^(4)km^(2)、41.5×10^(4)km^(2)、126.9×10^(4)km^(2)。在未来气候预测模型中,褐云玛瑙螺的适生区分布没有明显变化。结论褐云玛瑙螺在我国入侵扩大的风险依然长期存在,但在未来气候模型的条件下,其适生区域较为稳定,不会随着气候的变化显著改变。Objective To study the potential geographical distribution of Achatina fulica from Maxent modeling,which could facilitate the prevention and extermination of the invasiving species.Methods Bioinformatics research methods,information from databases and on-site sampling,and sufficient number of distribution points around the world were used to establish a model,and calculating the distribution potential of Achatina fulica in various regions of China.Results Via this delicate model,the potential distribution area of Achatina fulica was estimated as 196.5×10^(4)km^(2) whereas the 20.4% of the territory under current environmental circumstances,consisting of the continental provinces in the south of the Changjiang River and to the east of the Hengduan Mountains,including the integral Taiwan province and Hainan province.The areas of high,medium and low suitable regions were respectively 28.1×10^(4)km^(2),41.5×10^(4)km^(2) and 126.9×10^(4)km^(2).Conclusion Concerning with the future environmental model,the distributing region of Achatina fulica might magnify currently whereas its potential distribution maintain a rather constant level without apparent response to world climate fluctuation in the long term.

关 键 词：褐云玛瑙螺 MAXENT 潜在地理分布 

分 类 号：Q953[生物学—动物学]