“扩大内需”政策的长期化:基于日本经验的解释  

The Long-termization of the"Expansion of Domestic Demand"Policy:An Explanation Based on Japan’s Experience

作　　者：莽景石 MANG Jingshi(Japan Research Institute,Nankai University,Tianjin,300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学日本研究院,天津300071

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2021年第4期1-13,共13页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

基　　金：南开大学亚洲研究中心人文社会科学基础性研究项目“日本的‘供给侧革命’与产业政策研究”(AS1802)。

摘　　要：日本在完成向工业化经济转型后,对外经济摩擦、特别是与美国的贸易摩擦不断加剧,日本大规模的对外贸易出超导致国际收支严重失衡。在这一背景下,1986年出台的前川报告中提出了"扩大内需"政策。与战后欧美国家普遍实行的宏观需求管理比较,日本的扩大内需政策的主要特征是:(1)首要政策目标不是充分就业而是纠正国际收支失衡;(2)不是总量性政策而是结构性政策。本来具有特定政策目的、并且具有短期性质的日本扩大内需政策,在政策实践中,其内涵和外延不断扩展,在不失其本来的政策目的的同时,日益具有一般经济政策的属性,并且嵌入以货币政策为主的宏观需求管理之中。这说明日本的扩大内需政策长期化了,其主要的决定因素有:(1)在完成向工业化经济转型后,经济发展的约束条件由需求过剩转为需求不足;(2)泡沫破灭后陷入长期萧条,恢复自律性经济增长后始终处于慢性通货紧缩局面;(3)在向工业化经济转型过程中形成了"生产者内部人控制",在完成向工业化经济转型后,迟迟难以实现由重视生产者向重视消费者的转变;(4)在长期慢性通货紧缩中外需牵动增长的作用十分重要,探寻内外平衡的发展路径的需要。After Japan completed its transition to an industrialized economy,foreign economic frictions,especially trade frictions with the United States,have intensified.Japan’s large-scale foreign trade exports have caused serious imbalances in its international payments.In this context,the Maekawa report issued in 1986 put forward the policy of"expanding domestic demand".Compared with the macro-demand management generally implemented in European countries and America after the war,the main characteristics of Japan’s policy of expanding domestic demand are as follows:(1)The primary policy goal is not to get full employment but to correct the imbalance in international payments;(2)It is not a total policy but a structural policy.Japan’s domestic demand expansion policy,which originally had a specific policy purpose and was of a short-term nature,has continuously expanded its connotation and extension in policy practice.While not losing its original policy purpose,it increasingly has the attributes of general economic policies and is embedded in the macro-demand management based on monetary policy.This shows that Japan’s policy of expanding domestic demand has been prolonged,and its main determinants are as follows:(1)After completing the transition to an industrialized economy,the constraints of economic development have changed from excess demand to insufficient demand as follows;(2)Falling into a long-term depression after the bubble burst,and after resuming self-disciplined economic growth,it has been in a chronic deflationary situation;(3)In the process of transition to an industrialized economy,"producer insider control"has been formed.After completing the transition to an industrialized economy,the transition is slow from emphasizing producer to focusing on consumer purchase;(4)In the continuous long-term deflation,it’s very important to have economic expansion based on foreign demand,in order to explore the need for a development path of internal and external balance.

关 键 词：国际收支失衡 前川报告 扩大内需 宏观需求管理 日本 

分 类 号：F133.135[经济管理—世界经济]