能源和矿产资源消费增长规律的再认识  

Recognition of the growth rule of energy and mineral resources consumption

作　　者：王安建[1] WANG Anjian(Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《中国矿业》2021年第7期1-7,共7页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委基础科学中心项目资助(编号:72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目资助(编号:71991485)。

摘　　要：本文概要地总结了中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心20年来在能源和矿产资源消费增长与经济发展内在关系方面的部分研究成果,阐释了线性增长-指数增长-零增长关联演化的"S"形模型,以及其叠加、复合与能源和矿产资源消费增长方式演进的关系,进一步阐述了能源资源消费增长"S"形规律的内涵,强调"S"形规律是人类经济社会发展过程中能源和矿产资源消费增长的普适性规律,并以此为基础对全球能源与矿产资源需求周期做出了判断。This paper summarizes part of the research results of the Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources of the Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences on the internal relationship between energy and mineral resource consumption growth and economic development in the past 20 years,and explains the S-shaped model of the correlation evolution of linear growth-exponential growth-zero growth,as well as the relationship between its superposition,compounding and the evolution of energy and mineral resource consumption growth patterns,and further elaborates the connotation of the S-shaped rule of energy resource consumption growth,and emphasized that the S-shaped rule is the universal rule of energy and mineral resource consumption growth in the process of human economic and social development,and on this basis,once again made a judgment on the global energy and mineral resources demand cycle.

关 键 词：能源 矿产资源 资源消费 增长方式 “S”形规律 需求周期 

分 类 号：F407.1[经济管理—产业经济] F407.2