国家气象中心台风数值预报系统的发展  

Development of Typhoon Numerical Prediction System in National Meteorological Centre

作　　者：麻素红[1,2] 沈学顺 龚建东[1,2] 王建捷 陈德辉[1,2] 李泽椿 MA Suhong;SHEN Xueshun;GONG Jiandong;WANG Jianjie;CHEN Dehui;LI Zechun(CMA Numerical Weather Prediction Centre,Beijing 100081;National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局数值预报中心,北京100081 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2021年第6期685-692,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC15011904、2018YFC1506406);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406006);中国气象局GRAPES发展专项共同资助。

摘　　要：回顾了自“八五”科技攻关以来国家气象中心台风数值预报业务系统的发展历程,包括我国第一代区域模式台风数值预报系统、全球谱模式台风数值预报系统以及中国气象局自主发展的GRAPES全球模式及区域台风数值预报系统。比较不同时期台风数值预报系统的关键技术特征和预报性能,重点介绍GRAPES区域台风模式的主要技术成果,并对国家级台风数值预报系统未来5年的发展进行展望。This article reviews the three decade development of the typhoon numerical forecast operational system in the National Meteorological Centre(NMC)of China Meteorological Administration since the beginning of the Eighth Five Year Plan,including its first generation typhoon track numerical prediction system using regional model,a typhoon track numerical prediction system developed on the basis of the global spectral model,and the global and regional tropical cyclone(TC)forecast system independently developed by the China Meteorological Administration.It summarizes the key technologies and forecast performance of these systems,with a focus on the main technical achievements of GRAPES_TYM.It also puts forward some views on the development of the national typhoon numerical prediction system in the next five years.

关 键 词：台风数值预报 涡旋初始化 GRAPRS_TYM 预报性能 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]