基于组合赋权—改进TOPSIS法的综合管廊运维风险评价模型  

Operation and Maintenance Risk Evaluation Model for Utility Tunnel Based on Improved Combination Weighting—TOPSIS Method

作　　者：虢小燕 陈德义[1] GUO Xiao-yan;CHEN De-yi(School of management,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China)

机构地区：[1]广州大学管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2021年第3期70-75,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71901077).

摘　　要：城市地下综合管廊是城市地下空间开发运营能力的集中体现.针对综合管廊风险管理研究不够的问题,提出了一种基于组合赋权—改进TOPSIS法的综合管廊风险评价模型.综合考虑人为风险、技术风险、设备风险、管理风险、环境风险5项准则层风险对应的21个风险因素指标.采用改进层次分析法与熵权法分别确定主客观权重,结合理想点法确定风险因素指标的综合权重.以模糊理想解相似排序技术(TOPSIS)为基础,运用马氏距离法对传统TOPSIS法进行改进,对准则层风险因素到正负理想解的距离进行综合评价并排序.结果表明:技术风险对综合管廊风险影响程度最大,其次为管理风险.通过典型案例,证明模型的评价结果能够较为实际的反应综合管廊工程风险的情况,具有较强的指导意义.The utility tunnel is the key for the development and operational capabilities of urban underground space.In response to the insufficient studies on utility tunnel risk management,this research proposes a utility tunnel risk evaluation model based on the combined weighting-improved TOPSIS method.21 risk indicators with the five standard-level risks of man-made risks,technical risks,equipment risks,management risks,and environmental risks are comprehensively considered.The improved analytic hierarchy process and the entropy method are used to determine the subjective and objective weights,respectively,and the combined weighting method of the ideal point method is combined to determine the comprehensive weights of risk factor indicators.Meanwhile,based on the fuzzy ideal solution similarity ranking technology(TOPSIS)method,the Mahalanobis distance method is used to improve the traditional TOPSIS method,and the distance from the risk factors at the criterion level to the positive and negative ideal solutions is comprehensively evaluated and ranked.The research results show that technical risk has the greatest impact on the risk of integrated pipeline gallery,followed by management risk.Applying the model to typical case studies,the prediction results of this model can more realistically reflect the risk of integrated pipeline gallery projects,and have a strong guiding significance.

关 键 词：综合管廊 组合赋权 改进TOPSIS 运维风险 安全评价 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]