未来战争的新形态及其影响因素分析  

The New Form of Future Wars and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：洪源[1] Hong Yuan

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所

出　　处：《学术前沿》2021年第10期78-88,共11页Frontiers

摘　　要：从传染病到气候变化、从人工智能到潜在金融危机给世界带来的破坏和动荡将是人类未来将面临的主要矛盾。现有矛盾和未来挑战相互叠加,加之国家行为体和国际组织应对挑战能力均表现出不适应与不平衡性。未来世界的国家行为体很可能会在多个领域发生更为激烈的竞争直至战争行为。未来战争形态主要取决于军事超级大国的核、常规和高技术军力发展趋势、地缘政治发展趋势以及人工智能在军事中的广泛运用。当然,上述三个趋势变化并不意味着未来一定会发生大规模、大杀伤性的世界战争。The destruction and turbulences caused to the world by infectious diseases,the climate change,artificial intelligence and potential financial crisis will be the main contradictions facing the human beings in the future.The existing contradictions and future challenges are intertwined,and the state actors and international organizations have shown inadaptability and imbalance in their ability to deal with the challenges.In the future,the state actors in the world are likely to have more fierce competition in many fields,and even wars may break out.The future war pattern mainly depends on the military superpowers’nuclear,conventional and high-tech military development trend,the geopolitical development trend and the extensive application of artificial intelligence in the military activities.Of course,these three trends do not necessarily mean that there will be a world war of a large scale and great destruction in the future.

关 键 词：超级大国 地缘政治 人工智能 战争新形态 

分 类 号：E0[军事—军事理论]