世界大变局视野下的确定性与不确定性  

The Certainties and Uncertainties under the Background of the World’s Great Changes

作　　者：王永昌[1,2] 李梦云 Wang Yongchang;Li Mengyun

机构地区：[1]浙江大学马克思主义学院 [2]中国辩证唯物主义研究会 [3]浙江工商大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《学术前沿》2021年第10期108-119,共12页Frontiers

摘　　要：当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局,人类发展又到了一个重要战略关口。国际环境日趋复杂,不稳定性不确定性明显增加,经济全球化遭遇逆流,世界进入动荡变革期,挑战和机遇并存。确定性与不确定性是一对有着普遍哲学方法论意义的范畴。任何事物,尤其人类社会事物的发展都是确定性与不确定性的矛盾运动过程,人类的科学知识与实践活动也是不断把不确定性转化为确定性文明成果的循环上升过程,世界大变局中充满诸多变与不变的辩证法。纵观世界发展态势,"东升西降"和中美战略博弈成为这场大变局最为主要的时代特征。中国有足够的自信、智慧和能力顺应时代变局,并将在变局中开辟具有更多发展机遇的新局。The world is undergoing great changes that have never been seen over the past century,and human development has reached an important strategic level.The international environment is becoming more and more complex,uncertainties and instability increase significantly,the economic globalization is facing an adverse trend,and the world enters a period of turbulence and change,with challenges and opportunities coexisting.Certainty and uncertainty are two categories with the significance of universal philosophical methodology.The development of anything,especially that of human society,is a contradictory movement process of certainty and uncertainty.Human scientific knowledge and practice are also a spiral-like process of transforming uncertainties into certain civilizational achievements.There are many dialectics of change and invariance in the world.Throughout the world development situation,the"rising East and falling West"and strategic game between China and the United States have become the most important characteristics of the times in this great change.China has enough confidence,wisdom and ability to adapt to the changing times and will open up a new situation with more development opportunities in the changing situation.

关 键 词：世界变局 确定性与不确定性 中美战略博弈 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]