大气污染物对盐城市常住居民死亡影响时间序列研究  

A time-series study on the impact of air pollution on the death of permanent residents in Yancheng City

作　　者：黄连成[1] 李杰 刘付东[1] 李永红[2] 汤权 HUANG Liancheng;LI Jie;LIU Fudong;LI Yonghong;TANG Quan(Yancheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yancheng,Jiangsu 224000,China;National Institute of Environmental Health,China CDC,Bei Jing 100021,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省盐城市疾病预防控制中心,江苏盐城224000 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2021年第4期18-22,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101200);江苏省环境监测科研基金项目(1906)。

摘　　要：目的了解盐城市大气污染对当地常住居民非意外死亡的影响。方法收集2014—2019年该市逐日空气污染物资料(PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、O_(3))、平均温度、平均相对湿度和常住居民死亡数据,采用时间序列半参数广义相加模型,分析了盐城市空气污染物短期暴露对非意外死亡的影响。结果全人群、呼吸系统、循环系统非意外死亡日均值分别为154、25、51人。SO_(2)浓度每升高10mg/m^(3),总人群非意外死亡、呼吸系统死亡风险分别增加1.19%(95%CI:0.26%~2.12%)、2.37%(95%CI:0.65%~4.12%)。NO_(2)浓度每升高10mg/m^(3),总人群非意外死亡、呼吸系统、循环系统死亡风险分别增加1.50%(95%CI:0.94%~2.05%)、1.11%(95%CI:0.08%~2.16%)、1.53%(95%CI:0.71%~2.36%)。O_(3)浓度每升高10mg/m^(3),总人群非意外死亡、呼吸系统、循环系统死亡风险分别增加0.64%(95%CI:0.25%~1.04%)、0.81%(95%CI:0.04%~1.58%)、0.78%(95%CI:0.18%~1.37%)。结论盐城市大气污染物影响当地人群非意外死亡发生且存在滞后效应,其中NO_(2)、SO_(2)、O_(3)影响较大。Objective To investigate the effects of air pollution on non-accidental death of residents in Yancheng City.Methods Data of daily air pollutions(PM_(2.5),PM_(10),NO_(2),SO_(2) and O_(3)),average temperature,average relative humidity,and daily death information during 2014-2019 were collected.The time series semi parametric generalized additive model was used to analyze the impact of short-term exposure of air pollutants on non-accidental death in Yancheng City.Results The average daily non-accidental deaths of the entire population,respiratory system,and circulatory system were 154,25,and 51,respectively.With the increase of 10μg/m^(3) SO_(2),the risk of the estimated non-accidental death and respiratory death was increased by 1.19%(95%CI:0.26%-2.12%)and 2.37%(95%CI:0.65%-4.12%),respectively.With the increase of 10μg/m^(3) NO_(2),the risk of the estimated non-accidental death,circulatory system death and respiratory death was increased by 1.50%(95%CI:0.94%-2.05%),1.11%(95%CI:0.08%-2.16%),and 1.53%(95%CI:0.71%-2.36%),respectively.With the increase of 10μg/m^(3) O_(3),the risk of the estimated non-accidental death,circulatory system death and respiratory death was increased by 0.64%(95%CI:0.25%-1.04%),0.81%(95%CI:0.04%-1.58%),and 0.78%(95%CI:0.18%-1.37%),respectively.Conclusion The short-term exposure of air pollutants affects the non-accidental death of the residents in Yancheng,and there are lag effects,of which NO_(2),SO_(2) and O_(3) have a greater impact.

关 键 词：大气污染 非意外死亡 时间序列研究 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]