湖北省山丘型血吸虫病流行区人群病情空间聚集性探测研究  

Studying on detecting of spacial clusters of schistosomiasis japonica in mountainous and hilly areas,Hubei Province

作　　者：朱红[1] 吴家利[1] 李博[1] 单晓伟[1] 肖瑛[1] 颜伏杰 涂珍[1] 夏菁[1] 周晓蓉[1] 孙凌聪[1] 曹淳力 刘斯[1] 李石柱 ZHU Hong;WU Jiali;LI Bo;SHAN Xiaowei;XIAO Ying;YAN Fujie;TU Zhen;XIA Jing;ZHOU Xiaorong;SUN Lingcong;CAO Chunli;LIU Si;LI Shizhu(Hubei provincial center for disease control and prevention,Wuhan 430079,China;Station of Schistosomiasis Control,Songzi County Center for Disease Con-trol and Prevention,Songzi,Jingzhou,Hubei 434200,China;National Institute of Parasitic Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research,Shanghai 200025,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,武汉430079 [2]湖北省荆州市松滋市疾病预防控制中心血吸虫病防治所 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所,国家热带病研究中心

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2021年第4期31-35,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖北省科技计划项目(自然科学基金2018CFC896);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(81803297);湖北省卫生计生委科研项目(WJ2017X013)。

摘　　要：目的了解在湖北省山丘型血吸虫病重点防控地区,人群病情小尺度空间聚集性探测的应用价值。方法以松滋市2016—2018年血吸虫病血清学检测阳性抗体效价在1∶80及以上(血阳高)病例、血吸虫病粪便检查阳性病例(粪阳)为研究对象。以该市村级小尺度为研究单元,采用Flexible不规则空间扫描统计量,分别设定参数K=2、K=6、K=10时,对人群病情进行空间聚集性探测分析。结果松滋市2016—2018年未查出粪阳病例,血阳高病例分别为74人、206人、83人;2016—2018年血阳高病例均存在空间聚集性。Flexible不规则空间扫描统计分析探测到的聚集区域随着设定不同K值的变化而发生变化。不同参数下扫描探测结果显示松滋市血吸虫病人群病情聚集区域主要集中在老城镇、陈店镇、王家桥镇等最大似然聚集区的3个流行乡镇40个流行村。结论Flexible不规则空间扫描统计量探测出湖北省山丘型血吸虫病流行区的人群病情在村级小尺度上存在空间聚集性,今后需继续保持与巩固血吸虫病监测、防控工作力度,早日实现全省血吸虫病消除目标。Objective To understand the application value of spacial clusters detection of human schistosomiasis epidemic,based on small scale level in heavy mountainous and hilly endemic areas,Songzi County,Hubei Province,China.Methods Positive results of human serological detection antibody titer equal or above 80,and positive schistosomiasis cases of fecal examination from 2016 to 2018 as research object in Songzi County.The flexible irregular space scan statistics was used to analyse the spatial clustering analysis of human schistosomiasis epidemic in the heavy mountainous and hilly endemic areas,setting parameter K=2,K=6 or K=10,respectively,based on small scale of village level in Songzi County.Results There was none positive schistosomiasis cases of fecal examination in Songzi County from 2016 to 2018.The number of human serological detection antibody titer equal or above 80 were 74,206,83,from 2016 to 2018,respectively.There was spatial clusters of positive of human serological detection antibody titer equal or above 80 for schistosomiasis cases in the county from 2016-2018.Areas of flexible irregular space scan statistic in cluster detection changing with the change of different K values.Under different parameters of flexible irregular space scan statistic results show that the most likely cluster of 40 endemic villages in three towns,inculding Laocheng town,Chendian town and Wangjiaqiao town were the prominent.Conclusion There are spatial clusters of human schistosomiasis based on small scale of village level by flexible irregular space scan statistic in mountainous and hilly endemic areas,Songzi County,Hubei Province.Therefore,the monitoring and control of schistosomiasis should be consolidated in the future,in order to achieve schistosomiasis elimination in Hubei Province at an early date.

关 键 词：血吸虫病 空间聚集性分析 FLEXSCAN 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]