政府税率、铸币税税率和经济增长率的非线性关系——对经济增长拉弗曲线模型的扩展  

The Nonlinear Relationship among Government Tax Rate,Seigniorage Rate and Economic Growth Rate--an Expansion on“Laffer Curve of Economic Growth”Model

作　　者：陆前进[1,2] 武磊 LU Qianjin;WU Lei(International Finance Department,School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Monetary and Financial Research Center,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院国际金融系,上海200433 [2]复旦大学货币金融研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《复旦学报（自然科学版）》2021年第3期383-400,共18页Journal of Fudan University：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71773023,71173042,71572048);国家社会科学基金重大项目(16ZDA043)。

摘　　要：根据存量流量一致性模型确定了跨期叠代模型的预算约束均衡,在典型代理人最优化的分析框架下,同时结合生产者最优化和政府的预算约束均衡,得到政府税率、铸币税税率等对经济增长非线性影响的理论模型.传统分析认为这种影响可能是2次曲线关系,本文将其扩展到3次曲线关系,并对理论模型进行了实证研究,结果表明:经济增长与政府税率、铸币税税率之间并不是纯粹的倒U型的2次曲线关系,而是非线性的3次曲线关系.经济增长和铸币税税率的曲线是“倒U”型形状,而经济增长和政府税率的曲线是“∽”型形状.经济增长对政府税率的弹性相对更大,而对铸币税税率的弹性相对较小.另外,法定准备金率对经济增长影响的显著项显著为正.Based on the stock-flow consistent model,the balanced budget constraint of the intertemporal overlapping model is determined.Under the analytic framework of representative agent's optimization,by the combination with the optimization of the producer and the government balanced budget constraint,the paper obtains a theoretical model to capture the nonlinear effects on economic growth of the government tax rate,seigniorage rate,etc.The traditional research indicates that the influence may be the nonlinear relation of quadratic curve.In this paper,the model is extended to the nonlinear relation of cubic curve.On this basis,an empirical study on the theoretical model is made for indicating that it is not a pure“inverted U”shape quadratic relationship,but a cubic nonlinear curve among economic growth,government tax rate and seigniorage rate;furthermore,and the“inverted U”curve exists between economic growth and seigniorage rate,the“∽”curve exists between economic growth and government tax rate.The elasticity of economic growth to government tax rate is larger,while the elasticity to seigniorage rate is smaller.There are significant positive effects of reserve requirement ratio on economic growth in the view of significant coefficients.

关 键 词：政府税率 铸币税税率 法定准备金率 经济增长率 非线性关系 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F830.2