政党属性、决策主导权与美国对缅甸政策的变迁  

Political Party Attributes,Decision-making Power and the Evolution of U.S. Policy towards Myanmar

作　　者：祝湘辉[1] 秦羽 Zhu Xianghui;Qin Yu

机构地区：[1]云南大学国际关系研究院缅甸研究所暨周边外交研究中心 [2]墨尔本大学艺术、人文和社会科学学院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2021年第2期132-154,159,160,共25页South Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金冷门“绝学”和国别史等研究专项“缅甸内比都国家档案分馆有关英国殖民时期缅北山区少数民族的历史档案研究”(项目批准号:19VJX080);云南大学一流大学建设周边外交研究理论创新高地的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着中美竞争日益加剧,美国在东南亚针对中国全方位出击,给中国周边安全带来了不确定性和挑战。而与此形成悖论的是,美国对缅政策却反其道而行之,美国并未随着中美竞争而加紧拉拢缅甸。通过比较研究冷战后四届美国政府对缅政策的变迁,本文发现美国对缅政策的形成受到政党属性和决策主导权的影响,两者共同决定了美国对缅施压的强度。政党属性影响了总统偏好,决策主导权转移是对缅政策调整的主要动力。如果美国修改对缅政策的首要目标,以阻遏中国崛起取代民主和人权,美国在缅甸的行为模式和手段将有深度调整。As Sino-U.S.competition increases,the U.S.has launched a full attack on China in Southeast Asia,presenting China with great uncertainty and serious challenges vis-à-vis regional security.Paradoxically,America’s policy towards Myanmar has developed counter to this broader direction in U.S.policy,as it has not opted to step up efforts to align with Myanmar.Through a careful review of changes in U.S.policy towards Myanmar under four successive post-Cold War Administrations,this article finds that U.S.policy towards Myanmar is influenced by both party politics and the nature of decision-making power,and that dynamics between the two determine the extent to which the U.S.will exert influence on Myanmar.Party politics will influence the preferences of the U.S.President,while shifting control over decision-making power is the key driver behind policy adjustments.If the U.S.were to adjust its Myanmar policy to prioritize the objective of containing China’s rise over democracy and human rights,this would inevitably require a dramatic change in U.S.policy behavior.

关 键 词：美国对缅甸政策 美国国会 政党属性 对外决策主导权 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D833.7[政治法律—外交学]