台湾地区民众政治满意度影响因素探究——基于民意与政策调查的多元回归分析  

Study on the Influencing Factors of Taiwan Mass Political Satisfaction——Based on the Multiple Regression Analysis of Public Opinion and Policy Survey

作　　者：闫兴[1] Yan Xing

机构地区：[1]中共福建省委党校(福建行政学院)闽台研究院

出　　处：《台湾研究》2021年第3期72-82,共11页Taiwan Studies

基　　金：2019年9月至2019年12月台湾政治大学访学期间研究成果。

摘　　要：自上世纪80年代末台湾地区解除"戒严"、并开放"党禁""报禁"以来,岛内政治开始沿着所谓"民主化"与"本土化"方向转型,逐渐形成以国民党和民进党为主导的蓝绿两大阵营对抗的局面。国、民两党为争夺台湾政治主导权,长期互相攻讦、政治恶斗不断升级,经济发展放缓停滞,社会矛盾加剧,民众对政治满意度持续下滑。本文以台湾民众政治满意度为因变量,通过相关性分析提高拟合度,建立多元回归模型。实验结果表明,台湾民众对政治满意度受年龄结构、所在地区、经济状况、媒体信任度、政党认同等因素影响,因而大陆方面应加强关注台湾民意尤其是青年世代心态的变化和研究,以提升大陆对台举措的针对性。Since the end of 1980s,Taiwan lifted the"martial law",opened the"party ban"and"newspaper ban",the island’s politics began to transform along the so-called"democratization"and"localization"direction.It was gradually formed the situation of the blue-green two camps dominated by the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party respectively.For a long time,the political parties of Taiwan and the people have been fighting each other for the dominance of Taiwan’s politics.The political vicious fights have been escalating.As a result,the economic development has slowed down and stagnated,social conflicts have intensified and people’s political satisfaction has declined.This paper takes the Taiwan mass political satisfaction as the dependent variable,improves the fitting degree through correlation analysis and establishes a multiple regression model.The results show that the Taiwan mass political satisfaction is influenced by age structure,location,economic status,media trust,political party identity and other factors.

关 键 词：中国台湾 政治满意度 政治选择 多元回归分析 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]