“脱钩”与联动:两岸经济关系的特点与走向探析  

“Decoupling” and Coupling: Research on Characteristics and Trend of Cross-Strait Economic Relations

作　　者：刘玉人[1,2] Liu Yuren(Business School in University of Shanghai for Science and Technology;Shanghai Taiwan Institute)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院 [2]上海台湾研究所

出　　处：《台海研究》2021年第2期31-44,共14页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：教育部社科青年基金项目(17YJCGAT002)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：虽然受到中美博弈和新冠疫情的冲击,两岸经济关系并未出现民进党当局所预期的"脱钩"。但是出于"亲美抗陆"的政治需要,民进党当局无视市场规律,实施了一系列迎合美国的"去中国化"经济政策,一定程度上加速了2016年以来因成本等因素台商从大陆产能撤离的进程,增加了两岸部分产业断链的风险,对大陆高科技产业发展和台湾地区经济长期发展都产生了极为不利的冲击。大陆方面宜从中华民族整体发展利益出发,积极形塑两岸经济潜在的"脱钩"之势,将"脱钩"的减法思维调整为融合发展的加法思维,跳出民进党当局固有的"脱钩"话语体系,重新设定符合两岸经济利益的合作话语。Despite the impact of Sino-US competition and COVID-19,cross-Strait economic relations have not undergone "decoupling" as expected by the DPP authorities.However, due to the political manipulation of"Pro-US and Anti-ChineseMainland",the DPP authorities ignored market rules and implemented a series of "De-Sinicization" economic policies to cater to the United States, which to some extent accelerated Taiwan Residents entrepreneurs’ withdrawal of production capacity from the mainland due to cost and other factors since 2016,and increased the risk of chain disruption for some cross-Strait industries.It also has an extremely negative impact on the development of high-tech industries in the mainland and the long-term economic development of Taiwan.Bearing in mind the overall development interests of the Chinese nation, the mainland should actively guide the potential "decoupling" tendency of the cross-Strait economy and transform the subtractive thinking of "decoupling" into the additive thinking of integrated development, in order to move beyond the inherent "decoupling" discourse of the DPP authorities and re-establish the cooperative discourse in line with the economic interests of both sides.

关 键 词：两岸经济关系 高科技产业 “脱钩” 联动 美国因素 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]