基于模糊贝叶斯网络的城市地下综合管廊运维风险分析  

Operation and Maintenance of Urban Underground Utility Tunnels Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network

作　　者：陈雍君[1] 吴光晔 张宇 李冠勋 CHEN Yongjun;WU Guangye;ZHANG Yu;LI Guanxun(School of Urban Economics and Management,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;China Railway 17 Bureau Group Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学城市经济与管理学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [3]中铁十七局集团有限公司,山西太原030006

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2021年第4期64-70,共7页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(7194101601);中铁十七局企业委托研发项目(00362016168)。

摘　　要：为了对城市地下综合管廊运维中的风险进行准确的评估,为日常城市地下综合管廊的风险防范方案提供依据,针对现行城市地下综合管廊风险评价中解释能力不足的缺点,构建了城市地下综合管廊运维风险评价指标体系,在模糊评价思路的基础上引入了贝叶斯算法理论,综合风险发生概率和后果两方面对城市地下综合管廊的运维风险进行了评估,并以北京市某地下综合管廊为例进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)量化指标时融合了概率和后果两个方面,一方面考虑了风险发生的可能性包含的概率信息,另一方面考虑了风险发生所引起的后果损失率,这两方面的融合使得综合评价指标更符合实际,更具指导意义;(2)模糊贝叶斯理论不仅能对城市地下综合管廊的运维风险进行准确的评估,还能够推理各个风险因素之间的因果概率关系,这种强大的风险解释能力有利于及早控制风险,及时避免损失;(3)这种基于数据分析的风险评估方法在很大程度上降低了主观因素的影响,增加了评估结果的精确程度和风险预测的客观性。In order to accurately evaluate the risk state of the urban underground utility tunnels during operation and maintenance,and provide basis for the risk prevention scheme in daily work,aiming at the advance of interpretation ability in the risk evaluation of utility tunnels,this paper constructs the risk index system of utility underground tunnels during operation and maintenance.The paper applies the combined method based on fuzzy evaluation and Bayesian algorithm theory to evaluating risk levels from two aspects of integral risk probability and consequence.Taking Beijing utility tunnel as an example,the results of the case study are as follows:(1)When quantifying indicators,the method combines the probability and consequences of the risk factor.On the one hand,the theory consideres the probability information of risk occurrence,and on the other hand,the theory also takes into account the consequence loss rate caused by the occurrence of risks.The integration of these two aspects makes the comprehensive evaluation index more practical and more instructive.(2)Fuzzy Bayesian theory can not only accurately evaluate the probability of risk but also deduce the causal probability relationship among various risk factors.The strong ability of interpretating risk is conducive to the early control of risks and timely prevention of losses.(3)This risk evaluation method based on data analysis greatly reduces the influence of subjective factors and increases the accuracy of evaluation and objectivity of risk prediction.

关 键 词：城市地下综合管廊 模糊贝叶斯网络 运维风险评价 安全工程 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]