农业转移人口对流入地财政影响的成本-收益研究——基于个体生命周期的财政净现值测算  

A Cost-benefit Study on the Impact of Agricultural Transfer Population Inflow on Local Government Finance——Estimation of Fiscal Net Present Value Based on Individual Life Cycle

作　　者：张启春[1] 冀红梅 ZHANG Qichun;JI Hongmei(College of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China;College of Economics and Management, Hubei Engineering University, Xiaogan 432000, China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430079 [2]湖北工程学院经济与管理学院,湖北孝感432000

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第4期37-46,共10页Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“历史交汇期基本公共服务均等化政策实施效果、影响因素及优化方案研究”(19AZZ012);湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究青年项目“历史交汇期新生代农业转移人口市民化研究——基于Tiebout模型”(20Q132);湖北小微企业发展研究中心项目“湖北小微企业参与社区公共服务供给模式的调查研究”(20d02)。

摘　　要：农业转移人口市民化是我国城乡结构、人口结构以及产业结构变迁的主导因素,也是我国新型城镇化战略的首要任务。利用农业转移人口市民化的财政成本—收益净现值分析框架和财政统计数据以及中国流动人口动态监测数据,测算农业转移人口个体生命周期的财政成本现值、收益现值、净现值,结果表明:农业转移人口市民化对流入地带来财政成本同时也有积极贡献,以全口径宏观财政负担估算的财政贡献大于一般公共预算口径的估计值;农业转移人口市民化的财政净现值因个体生命周期所处阶段不同而存在差异;不同城市间农业转移人口市民化的财政净现值差异也较大。因此,建议地方政府综合考量农业转移人口市民化的财政成本与收益,提升农业转移人口收入,渐次分层推进人口市民化进程。The citizenization of agricultural transfer population,the driving force behind the transformation of urban-rural structure,population structure and industrial structure,is the primary task of China’s new urbanization strategy.Based on the analytical framework of fiscal cost-benefit net present value,fiscal statistics and China Migrants Dynamic Survey,this paper calculates the fiscal cost present value,income present value and net present value of the individual life cycle of the agricultural transfer population.The results show that the citizenization of agricultural transfer population has increased the fiscal costs of the inflow areas,and at the same time it has brought positive contributions to the areas.The fiscal contribution estimated according to the full scope macro fiscal burden is greater than that estimated by the general public budget;the fiscal net present value of agricultural transfer population varies with the stage of the individual life cycle;There exists a strong difference in fiscal net present value between different cities.Therefore,it is suggested that local governments should comprehensively consider the fiscal costs and benefits of the citizenization of agricultural transfer population,enhance the income of agricultural transfer population,and gradually promote the process of urbanization.

关 键 词：农业转移人口市民化 财政成本与收益 净现值 个体生命周期 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]