2018年中国五城市大气细颗粒物暴露所致人群超额死亡风险评估  

Risk assessment of excess mortality attribute to PM exposure in 5 cities in China in 2018

作　　者：孟聪申[1] 刘静怡[1] 刘悦[1] 徐春雨[1,2] 刘喆[1] 李韵谱[1] 王秦[1,2] 韩京秀[1,2] 徐东群[1,2] Meng Congshen;Liu Jingyi;Liu Yue;Xu Chunyu;Liu Zhe;Li Yunpu;Wang Qin;Han Jingxiu;Xu Dongqun(National Institute of Environmental Health,China CDC,Beijing 100021,China;China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health,Beijing 100021,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所,北京100021 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与人群健康重点实验室,北京100021

出　　处：《卫生研究》2021年第4期593-599,共7页Journal of Hygiene Research

基　　金：国家卫生计生委卫生公益性行业科研专项(No.201402022,201502003)。

摘　　要：目的对中国五城市大气细颗粒物(fine particulate matter, PM2.5)暴露所致人群超额死亡进行风险评估。方法收集哈尔滨、西安、南京、成都和广州5个城市2015—2018年每日大气污染物PM2.524小时平均浓度、平均温度、平均相对湿度和人群死因监测资料,采用因变量符合泊松分布的广义相加模型进行时间序列分析,获得PM2.5暴露对人群死亡影响的暴露-反应关系系数。利用5个城市2018年每日PM2.524小时平均浓度估算人群暴露量,以《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)PM2.524小时平均二级浓度限值为参考浓度(75μg/m3),应用大气污染人群健康风险评估模型,估算五城市人群在2018年因PM2.5暴露导致的超额死亡人数。结果 2018年哈尔滨和广州市PM2.5暴露所致人群循环系统疾病超额死亡人数分别为35例和92例,西安市PM2.5暴露所致人群呼吸系统疾病超额死亡人数为70例,南京市PM2.5暴露所致人群非意外总死亡超额死亡人数为69例,成都市PM2.5暴露所致人群非意外、呼吸系统疾病和循环系统疾病超额死亡人数依次为588例、210例和134例。结论 PM2.5暴露可导致人群超额死亡风险增加,这种风险在不同城市间存在差异。OBJECTIVE To assess the risk of excess mortality caused by exposure to PM2.5 in 5 cities in China. METHODS Surveillance data on daily concentration of PM2.5, meteorology and death-causes were collected from 2015 to 2018 in Harbin, Xi’an, Nanjing, Chengdu and Guangzhou cities. Generalized additive model(GAM) was used to analyze acute exposure-response coefficients of PM2.5 exposure on the mortality. Using daily 24-hour average concentration of PM2.5 in 2018 to estimate the exposure levels of the population, with PM2.5 24-hour average concentration limit of the ambient air quality standard(GB 3095—2012) for reference concentration(75 μg/m3), and applicating the health risk assessment model, the excess deaths attribute to PM2.5 exposure in the 5 cities in 2018 was estimated. RESULTS Attribute to PM2.5 exposure, the excess cases of death caused by circulatory system diseases in Harbin and Guangzhou were 35 and 92, the excess cases caused by respiratory diseases in Xi’an was 70, the excess cases of caused by non-accident in Nanjing was 69, and the excess cases caused by non-accidental, respiratory and circulatory diseases in Chengdu were 588, 210 and 134 in 2018. CONCLUSION PM2.5 exposure could increase the excess mortality risk, which varies among different cities.

关 键 词：细颗粒物 超额死亡 风险评估 风险表征 

分 类 号：R122.7[医药卫生—环境卫生学]