未来气候变化背景下贵州省夏季旅游气候资源的变化预估  

Climate Projection of Summer Tourism Resources over Guizhou under Background of Global Warming

作　　者：张娇艳[1,2] 王玥彤 李扬 牟佳[1] 丁立国[1] ZHANG Jiaoyan;WANG Yuetong;LI Yang;MU Jia;DING Liguo(Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002;Guizhou Key Lab of Mountainous Climate and Resources,Guiyang 550002;Guiyang Meteorological Service,Guiyang 550001)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气候中心,贵阳550002 [2]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳550002 [3]贵州省贵阳市气象局,贵阳550001

出　　处：《气象科技》2021年第3期399-405,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登[2021]01-07号);中国气象局气候变化专项[CCSF201915];国家自然科学基金项目(41865005)资助。

摘　　要：利用区域气候模式(RegCM4)1951—2005年历史模拟和2006—2099年RCP8.5(高排放)和RCP4.5(中排放)情景下的逐日平均气温、降水量、10m风速和入射辐射通量,给出21世纪贵州省夏季与全国其他地区的旅游气候资源时空对比。结果表明:未来贵州省夏季平均气温的增幅在两种排放情景下均小于全国的增幅,且2050年以后RCP4.5(低排放)情景下的增温幅度低于RCP8.5(高排放)情景。而其他气候要素(夏季降水量,10m风速和辐射)基本上没有表现出明显的变化趋势。空间分布来看,贵州省21世纪不同阶段在两种排放情景下其夏季平均气温增幅低于北部和西部大部分区域、与云南省增幅接近,但未来云南省主要以夏季辐射增加的态势为主,尤其是21世纪中远期RCP8.5(高排放)情景下更是位于夏季辐射增加的大值中心。因此综合来看,未来夏季贵州省增温幅度较小且降水量、10m风速和辐射变化不大,将继续维持良好的夏季避暑旅游气候资源优势。同时大力提倡环保减排是维持并进一步扩大贵州省避暑旅游资源优势的有力措施。Under the historical simulation during 1951-2005 and two different scenarios of greenhouse gas emission including RCP 8.5 and 4.5 over 2006-2099,the daily mean temperature,precipitation,westerly wind at 10 mand incident solar energy flux from the RegCM4 model are examined in this study in order to find out the comparison of temporal and spatial climate change in summer tourism resources between Guizhou and other regions in China over the 21 century.Results show that the increase of mean temperature in summer over Guizhou under two scenarios will be smaller that of the whole nation,and the warming amplitude after 2050 under RCP4.5(low emission)scenario would be lower than that under RCP8.5(high emission)scenario.There was no obvious change in other factors including precipitation,westerly wind at 10 mand incident solar energy flux.From the perspective of spatial distribution,the increase in summer mean temperature over Guizhou would be less than that in the northern and western regions in China during the 21 st century under the two RCPs scenarios,though close to that in Yunnan.However,Yunnan would be dominated by the trend of increasing incident solar energy flux in summer,especially located in the high-value center of rising under the RCP8.5(higher emission)in the mid-late 21 st century.Generally,Guizhou would continue keeping the advantage in summer tourism climate resources on account of the less increasing mean temperature and little changes in precipitation,westerly wind at 10 mand incident solar energy flux in the future.Moreover,environmental protection for emission reduction should be adopted to maintain and further expand the advantages of summer tourism resources in Guizhou.

关 键 词：气候变化 贵州省 夏季旅游 气候资源 气候预估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]