基于改进Markov-GM(1,n)的贫信息器材需求预测模型  

Demand Forecasting Model of Poor Information Equipment Based on Improved Markov-GM(1,n)

作　　者：贾琦 王铁宁 张一驰 刘旭阳 JIA Qi;WANG Tiening;ZHANG Yichi;LIU Xuyang(Army Armored Academy, Beijing 100072, China;The Northern War Zone Army, Jinan 250000, China)

机构地区：[1]陆军装甲兵学院,北京100072 [2]北部战区陆军保障部,济南250000

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2021年第S01期212-216,238,共6页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

基　　金：军队总装科研项目(2020BZ08)。

摘　　要：针对贫信息器材消耗数据装备器材历史数据少、复杂性高、非线性等特点,利用灰色模型构建方便、计算简单、善于挖掘影响因素内部联系的优点以及Markov预测方法能够反映数据之间隐性联系的优点,将两种方法进行组合预测,设计了一种改进Markov-GM(1,n)的需求预测模型,以某建制单位贫信息器材的需求预测为例,验证方法的可行性。In view of the characteristics of poor information equipment consumption data,less historical data,high complexity and non-linearity,this paper used the advantages of Grey model,such as convenient construction,simple calculation,good at mining the internal relations of influencing factors,and the advantages of Markov prediction method,which can reflect the implicit relations between data,to combine the two methods for forecasting,and designed an Improved Markov GM demand forecasting method.The forecasting model was used to solve the demand forecasting problem of poor information equipment.Finally,the feasibility and superiority of the method were verified by taking the demand forecast of information equipment in a construction unit as an example.

关 键 词：装备器材 灰色理论 需求预测 马尔可夫模型 

分 类 号：TJ07[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术]