改革开放以来中国工业资本回报率分析  

An Analysis of China's Industrial Return on Capital Since 1978

作　　者：郭文[1] 秦建友 GUO Wen;QIN Jian-you(National School of Development,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Industrial and Business Organization Research Center,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian Liaoning 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国家发展研究院,北京100871 [2]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2021年第7期61-66,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：文章基于改进的宏观模型首次测算1978—2018年中国省际工业资本回报率,并从理论分解和经验分解两个视角系统地识别中国工业资本回报率的影响因素。研究结果表明,1978年以来中国工业资本回报率的变动经历三个阶段:1978—1998年、1999—2011年、2012—2018年。其中,1978—1998年中国工业资本回报率呈现下降趋势,1999—2011年保持上升趋势,2012—2018年再次出现下降趋势,但下降速度较为平缓。且中国工业资本回报率呈现两个区域性差异特征:一是工业资本回报率由东向西依次递减;二是工业资本回报率区域间差异逐渐收敛。同时,经验分解结果与理论分解结果保持一致性,即全要素生产率与工业资本回报率变动正相关,资本错配程度、资本深化速率与工业资本回报率变动负相关。研究结论有助于准确把握中国工业资本回报率的变动走势,并为产业政策制定提供合理依据。Based on the improved model,this paper estimates China's industrial return on capital at provincial level since 1978,and identifies its influencing factors from the perspectives of theoretical and empirical decomposition.The results show that since the reform and opening up,China's industrial return on capital has roughly gone through three stages:In 1978—1998,China's industrial return on capital maintained a downward trend;In 1999—2011,an upward trend;And in 2012—2018,a slow downward trend.China's industrial return on capital shows the inter-provincial and inter-regional differences:China's industrial return on capital decreases from east to west,and the inter-regional difference of industrial return on capital tends to converge.In addition,the empirical decomposition results are consistent with the theoretical decomposition results,the total factor productivity is positively correlated with the return on capital variation,whereas the degree of capital mismatch and the capital deepening rate are negatively correlated with the change of return on capital.

关 键 词：工业资本回报率 全要素生产率 资本错配 资本深化 

分 类 号：F823.5[经济管理—财政学]