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作 者:庞浩 金星晔 管汉晖[1] Hao Pang;Xingye Jin;Hanhui Guan(School of Economics,Peking University;School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics)
机构地区:[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]中央财经大学经济学院
出 处:《经济学报》2021年第2期93-128,共36页China Journal of Economics
基 金:国家自然科学基金面上项目(批准号:70973003);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(18ZDA089);人民银行《中国历史上以美元折价的对外贸易和货币存量研究》项目;北京高校卓越青年科学家计划项目(BJJWZYJH01201910034034);中央财经大学标志性科研成果培育项目的资助。
摘 要:1978年改革开放以来,中国经济更深地卷入了全球化,由于在贸易中较好地符合了比较优势理论,中国很长时间里经常账户处于盈余状态,由此积累了较大规模的外汇储备。本文在更长远的历史视角下考察中国的贸易盈余和外汇储备。首先,查找和计算1636年以来的进出口,相对应的白银流入和流出,以及重要年份的白银存量数据。其次,基于同一年份的货币购买力,将历史上的贸易和白银存量与新中国成立后,特别是1978年改革开放后的贸易和外汇储备进行比较。最后,计算人均进出口额和贸易盈余或者赤字,并进行长时段比较。研究发现:1636年到新中国成立前,中国的贸易规模不断扩大,新中国成立初期贸易额稍有下降,改革开放后贸易额大幅度增加,加入WTO后增速更快。以1990年美元计值,明代贸易带来的白银净流入高于清代,也高于民国初期和改革开放前,但显著低于改革开放后和加入WTO后的外汇储备。新中国成立前,人均贸易额不断增加,1948—1978年间人均贸易额有所下降,改革开放后,人均贸易额进一步增加。本文的发现有助于从长期视角考察改革开放后的经常账户和资本账户,得到更加全面和客观的认识。Since the reform and opening up in 1978,China’s economy has been more deeply involved in globalization.Because it is better in line with the theory of comparative advantage in trade,China has been in a state of current account surplus for a long time,thus accumulating large-scale foreign exchange reserves.This paper examines China’s trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves from a longer-term historical perspective.Firstly,this paper finds and calculates the imports and exports since 1636,the corresponding silver inflows and outflows,as well as the silver stock data in some years.Secondly,the historical trade and silver stocks are compared with the trade and foreign exchange reserves after the founding of the People’s Republic of China,especially after the reform and opening up in 1978.Finally,this paper calculates the per capita import and export volume and trade surplus or deficit,and make a long-term comparison.This paper finds that from 1636 to the founding of People’s Republic of China,China’s trade scale continues to expand,the trade volume decreases slightly in the early days of the founding of People’s Republic of China,increases significantly after the reform and opening up,and increases even faster after China’s accession to the WTO.In terms of 1990 US dollars,the net inflow of silver brought by trade in the Ming Dynasty is higher than that in the Qing Dynasty,and also higher than that in the early period of the Republic of China and before the reform and opening up,but significantly lower than that after the reform and opening up and after China’s entry into WTO.Before the founding of People’s Republic of China,the per capita trade volume increases continuously,and decreases from 1949 to 1978.After the reform and opening up,the per capita trade volume further increases.The findings of this paper are helpful to examine the current account and capital account after the reform and opening up from a long-term perspective,and get a more comprehensive and objective understanding.
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