陕西烤烟气候适宜性时空变化特征及风险分析  

Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of climatic suitability for flue-cured tobacco in Shaanxi and corresponding risk analysis

作　　者：胡颖梅 徐磊[2] 袁帅[2] 高明博 过伟民[3] 张艳玲[3] 王林虹 王爱国[3] HU Yingmei;XU Lei;YUAN Shuai;GAO Mingbo;GUO Weimin;ZHANG Yanling;WANG Linhong;WANG Aiguo(Shaanxi Provincial Tobacco Company of CNTC,Xi’an 710004,China;Technology Center,China Tobacco Shaanxi Industrial Co.,Ltd.,Baoji 721000,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Ecological Environment and Tobacco Quality in Tobacco Industry,Zhengzhou Tobacco Research Institute of CNTC,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国烟草总公司陕西省公司,西安市710004 [2]陕西中烟工业有限责任公司技术中心,陕西省宝鸡市721000 [3]中国烟草总公司郑州烟草研究院烟草行业生态环境与烟叶质量重点实验室,郑州450001

出　　处：《烟草科技》2021年第7期41-50,共10页Tobacco Science & Technology

基　　金：中国烟草总公司陕西省公司科技项目“以提高陕西烟叶工业适配性为核心的技术研究与开发”(KJ-2018-04)。

摘　　要：为考察气候变化对烤烟生长适宜性的影响,利用烤烟气候适宜性评价、气候趋势分析和气候风险度评价等方法,分析了陕西6个烤烟产区主要气候因素及烤烟气候适宜性指标的年际波动情况,探讨了1980—2015年间各产区烤烟种植主要限制气候因素以及气候因素的倾向率,并对各产区烤烟种植风险度进行了评价。结果显示,陕西各产区烤烟生育期间降雨量年际波动较大,是烤烟气候适宜性的主要限制因素。安康、汉中和商洛等区域烤烟气候综合适宜性较高,年际稳定性较好,适宜发展成为陕西核心烤烟种植区。气候趋势分析表明,陕西多数烤烟产区气温呈显著升高趋势,宝鸡和咸阳产区的烤烟气候适宜性显著提高。In order to investigate the effects of climate change on the suitability for the growth of flue-cured tobacco,the main climatic factors for six main flue-cured tobacco planting areas in Shaanxi,inter-annual fluctuation of climatic suitability indexes for flue-cured tobacco,the main limiting climatic factors and the tendency of climatic factors in each tobacco planting area from 1980 to 2015,and the risk degree of flue-cured tobacco planting in each area were evaluated.The results showed that the inter-annual fluctuation of precipitation during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco was great,and the precipitation was the main limiting factor for the climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco.With better inter-annual stability,the comprehensive climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco in Ankang,Hanzhong and Shangluo was relatively higher,and those regions were suitable to be developed into major tobacco planting areas.The climatic trend analysis indicated that the temperature in most flue-cured tobacco planting areas of Shaanxi presented a significant raising trend,which significantly promoted the climatic suitability of flue-cured tobacco in Baoji and Xianyang.

关 键 词：烤烟 陕西 气候适宜性 时空变化 气候风险 

分 类 号：S572[农业科学—烟草工业]