从技术系统进化趋势研判主要显示技术方向的演进  

Development judgment of the main display techniques based on the trends of engineering system evolution

作　　者：杨斌 王世荣[2] YANG Bin;WANG Shi-rong(High Technology Research and Development Center of Ministry of Science and Technology, Beijing 100040, China;School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

机构地区：[1]科学技术部高技术研究发展中心,北京100040 [2]天津大学化工学院,天津300072

出　　处：《液晶与显示》2021年第8期1144-1150,共7页Chinese Journal of Liquid Crystals and Displays

基　　金：天津市科技计划项目(No.20ZLGCGX00050)。

摘　　要：为了指导科技立项、研发资源投入和综合管理评价,对主要显示技术方向的演进趋势进行研判。基于技术系统的S曲线进化趋势,对新型显示主要技术系统所处的发展阶段和发展方向进行判断,利用专利数量与时间的关系挖掘研发资源投入与其生命周期的关系。研究结果表明,液晶和有机发光二极管显示系统分别处于成熟期和成长期,电子纸和激光显示处于过渡期,量子点和微发光二极管处于婴儿期。专利数量多,预示着研发投入大,技术系统的市场生命周期长。技术系统成熟度越低,研发成果的发明级别越高。基础研究投入应侧重于婴儿期,共性关键技术研发投入应侧重于过渡期和成长期的初期。本文为科技立项和研发投入的内容、主体提出了建议。In order to assist R&D investment and science and technology projects management,the evolution trend of some main display techniques was evaluated.Based on the S-curve evolution trend,new display technology systems'development stage and direction were judged.The relationship between R&D investment and market life was analyzed by using the patent quantity in different years.It is showed that liquid crystal and organic light-emitting diode display systems are in the mature and growing period,respectively,E-paper and laser display are in the transitional period,quantum dots and micro light-emitting diodes are in the infancy.A large number of patents indicates a large R&D investment and long market life of a technology.The lower the maturity of the technology system,the higher the invention level of R&D achievements.Therefore,the investment in basic research should focus on infancy,and the investment in R&D of common key technologies should focus on the transition period and the early growth period.The content and leading investors of R&D were put forward.

关 键 词：进化趋势 S曲线分析 显示系统 研发投入 

分 类 号：TN873[电子电信—信息与通信工程] TN27