省际劳动力流动对产业结构升级的影响  

Effect of Inter-provincial Labor Migration on Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：张建武 蔡萍 ZHANG Jian-wu;CAI Ping(School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou,510006)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院,广州510006

出　　处：《中国劳动》2021年第3期5-20,共16页China Labor

摘　　要：劳动力作为重要生产要素之一,其流动对于推动产业结构升级具有重要意义。为探究劳动力流动与产业结构升级的内在关系,本文以2002年-2017年中国大陆30个省的面板数据为样本,在深入分析劳动力流动与产业结构升级二者之间内在机制的基础上,利用固定效应模型和SYS-GMM模型实证分析劳动力流动对产业结构升级的影响。研究结果表明:整体来看,无论是以产业结构综合指数还是以产业结构高级化指数所表征的产业结构升级,劳动力流动对产业结构升级均存在显著的促进作用,且存在一定的路径依赖;但由于地区经济发展不平衡,劳动力流动对产业结构升级的影响在地区间呈现不同趋势,东部和西部地区劳动力流动对产业结构升级存在促进作用,而中部地区则存在显著的负向影响。最后基于理论分析以及实证研究结果,对劳动力流动促进产业结构升级方面提出了相应的政策建议。The labor force as one of the important production factors,its flow is of great significance in pushing the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.To explore the inherent relationship between labor migration and industrial structure upgrading,this paper took the panel data of 30 provinces in China's Mainland from 2002 to 2017 as samples.On the basis of in-depth analysis of the inherent mechanism between labor migration and industrial structure upgrading,the effect of labor migration on industrial structure upgrading was empirically analyzed by using the fixed effect model and the SYS-GMM model.The research shows that:on the whole,whether the industrial structure upgrading is represented by the composite index of industrial structure or the advanced index of industrial structure,the labor migration has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure,and there is a certain path of dependence.Due to the imbalanced economic development in different regions,the effect of labor migration on industrial structure upgrading shows different trends in different regions,i.e.,the labor migration in the Eastern and Western regions has a positive effect on industrial structure upgrading,while there is a significant negative effect in the Central region.Finally,based on theoretical analysis and the results of empirical research,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on how to enhance industrial structure upgrading through labor migration.

关 键 词：劳动力流动 产业结构升级 固定效应模型 SYS-GMM模型 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]