消费意愿,还是消费能力?--新发展格局下农村居民消费低迷的原因及对策研究  

Willingness or Ability in Consumption?--A Study on the Causes of Rural Residents’Low Consumption in the Context of the New Development Pattern and Their Responses

作　　者：潘春阳 王佩雯 曹志伟 吴柏钧 PAN Chun-yang;WANG Pei-wen;CAO Zhi-wei;WU Bai-jun(School of Busiuess,East China Uuniversity of Science and Technology,Shanghai,200237)

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院经济学系,上海200237

出　　处：《中国劳动》2021年第3期54-66,共13页China Labor

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“健全城乡融合发展机制研究”,项目编号:21AZD036

摘　　要：进一步提振农村居民消费,已经成为畅通国内大循环、推进乡村振兴的关键举措。本文基于2013年-2019年中国农村居民消费和收入等时间序列数据,将农村居民最终消费率分解为“消费意愿”和“消费能力”两大因子,并进一步从初次分配和再分配的角度对“消费能力”进行分解。基于此,本文测算了各因子对农村居民消费率的相对贡献程度。研究发现:第一,农村居民的“消费能力”,而非“消费意愿”,才是阻碍农村居民消费率提升的主导因素;第二,农村居民“消费能力”不足主要源于农村居民初次分配收入份额的持续下降;第三,农村居民工资性和经营性收入占比下降,以及财产性收入低位徘徊是导致农村居民初次分配占据不利地位的主要原因。基于此,本文从健全城乡融合发展机制、培育新型经营主体、深化农村集体产权制度改革等角度提出了提振农村居民消费的政策建议。Boosting the consumption of rural residents has become a key measure to smooth the domestic cycle and promote rural revitalization.Based on the time series of consumption and income of rural residents in China from 2013 to 2019,this article decomposes the final consumption ratio of rural residents into two major factors:“Consumption Willingness”and“Consumption Ability”,and further decomposes the“Consumption Ability”from the perspective of primary distribution and redistribution.Based on this,it measures the relative contribution of each factor to the rural residents’consumption.It finds that:firstly,it is the“Consumption Ability”,the main factor that hinders the increasing of rural residents’consumption ratio,rather than“Consumption Willingness”.Secondly,the insuff icient“Consumption Ability”is mainly due to the decline of the primary income share of rural residents.Thirdly,the main reason for rural residents in the disadvantage of primary income distribution pattern is the decline in the income share from labor and business operation,as well as the depressed property income share.Based on this analysis,this article makes policy recommendations to boost rural residents’consumption from the perspectives of improving the urban-rural development mechanism in an integrated way,cultivating new-type business entities,and deepening the reform of the rural collective property rights system.

关 键 词：农村居民 最终消费率 消费能力 国民收入分配 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]