外汇干预、汇率稳定与货币政策规则  

Foreign Exchange Intervention, Exchange Rate Stability and Monetary Policy Rules

作　　者：胡小文[1,2] HU Xiaowen(Anhui Normal University,Wuhu,241002)

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学经济管理学院 [2]南京大学

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2021年第3期90-103,共14页China Economic Studies

基　　金：中国博士后面上基金“汇率市场化能提升货币政策有效性——基于NOEM-DSGE模型的模拟”(2017M611761)。

摘　　要：本文构建外汇储备管理汇率、利率调控通胀的双目标双工具动态随机一般均衡框架,比较分析通胀目标制与双目标双工具政策下的经济波动与政策有效性。模拟显示:(1)面对国外利率冲击时,实施通胀目标制会导致实体经济与金融市场出现大幅波动,双目标双工具政策能实现经济和金融稳定,但面对国外需求下降,结论刚好相反,此时实施通胀目标制下的经济和金融波动较小;(2)通胀目标制下货币政策有效性虽强,但会引起企业杠杆率和资产价格大幅波动,双目标双工具政策能兼顾政策有效性与金融市场稳定性;(3)随着资本账户逐步开放,双目标双工具政策抵御国外利率变动、稳定汇率的能力都将下降。以上结论的政策启示是:当前阶段需要灵活制定汇率调控政策以缓解经济与金融波动,构建货币政策与跨境资本宏观审慎政策相结合的双支柱框架。We construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework in which foreign exchange reserve management exchange rates and interest rate regulates inflation, to compare economic fluctuations and policy effects under the inflation target system and "dual-target-and-dual-tool" policy.(1)facing of foreign interest rate shocks, the implementation of the inflation target system causes large economic and financial fluctuations;while the "dual-target-and-dual-tool" policy can achieve economic and financial stability. However, conditional on foreign demand declines, we arrive at an opposite result that economic and financial volatility under the inflation target system is smaller.(2) Although inflation target system is very effective, it will induce fluctuation in the companies’ leverage ratios and asset prices;the "dual-target-and-dual-tool policy" can take both policy effectiveness and financial stability into account.(3) With the opening-up of capital accounts, the effectiveness of the "dual-target-and-dual-tool" policy in resisting changes in foreign interest rates and stabilizing the exchange rate declines. It implies that China should formulate exchange rate control policies to ease economic and financial fluctuations, and construct a two-pillar framework combining monetary and macro-prudential policies.

关 键 词：动态随机一般均衡 冲销干预 通胀目标制 金融加速器 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F821.0