基于概率方法的中国居民饮水途径砷暴露健康风险评估  

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Arsenic Exposure Through Drinking Water Intake in Chinese Residents

作　　者：秦宁 刘运炜 侯荣 王彩云[2] 王贝贝 段小丽 QIN Ning;LIU Yun-wei;HOU Rong;WANG Cai-yun;WANG Bei-bei;DUAN Xiao-li(School of Energy and Environmental Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Beijing Urban Drainage Monitoring Center Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学能源与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京市城市排水监测总站有限公司,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学》2021年第7期3338-3347,共10页Environmental Science

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(FRF-TP-18-071A1,FRFTP-19-047A1)。

摘　　要：通过文献调研收集我国3类主要饮用水类型的总砷浓度.通过回归模型获得不同年龄段人群饮水暴露参数分布模式.基于概率方法评价不同水体和不同人群由于砷暴露造成的致癌风险和非致癌风险.结果发现,全国各类水体的总砷浓度几何均值为(13.0±38.1)μg·L^(-1).其中饮用水中的最高砷浓度出现在内蒙古,广西和山西饮用水中也有较高总砷检出.与相关标准中的砷浓度标准相比,未经处理的井水和未经处理的地表水源水超标的概率分别为23.2%和18.4%.非致癌风险评估发现,井水和地表水源水饮用人群超过单日暴露剂量阈值的概率分别为24.0%和19.5%.致癌风险评估发现,我国全人群终生饮水砷摄入导致的致癌风险(LCR)中位数为3.22×10^(-5),处于可接受水平.其中18~45岁人群有最大的风险贡献,LCR中位数为1.37×10^(-5).井水和地表水源水饮用人群LCR仍有一定概率超过美国环保署(US EPA)规定的严重风险水平.综上所述,我国居民存在潜在的饮用水砷暴露健康风险,需要进一步加强饮用水砷污染控制以降低砷引发的健康风险和保障饮水安全.同时建议加强风险阈值研究以期真实反映砷暴露风险,为保护居民健康提供科学依据.The total arsenic concentrations of the three main drinking water types in China were determined through a systematic literature review.The distribution models of drinking water exposure parameters for different age groups were obtained using the regression method.The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of different population groups caused by arsenic exposure through different drinking water types were evaluated by a probabilistic risk assessment.The results showed that the geometric mean of total arsenic content in all the drinking water samples in China was (13.0±38.1)μg·L^(-1).The highest arsenic content was found in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,followed by Guangxi and Shanxi.Based on the relevant standards for drinking water quality,the probability exceeding the threshold value of groundwater and source water is 23.2%and 18.4%,respectively.According to the results of non-carcinogenic risk assessment,the probability of the residents drinking well water and surface water from the water source area exceeding the daily average exposure dose threshold was 24.0%and 19.5%,respectively.According to the carcinogenic risk assessment,the median of carcinogenic risk caused by arsenic in drinking water in China was 3.22×10^(-5),which is acceptable.The population group of 18-45 years old had the highest risk,and the median LCR was 1.37×10^(-5).There was still a certain probability that the LCR of drinking well water and surface water would exceed the acceptable risk level recommended by the US EPA.In conclusion,the potential health risks caused by arsenic exposure through drinking water intake exist among Chinese residents.Further control of the arsenic concentration in drinking water is required to reduce the health risk and improve the safety of drinking water.Meanwhile,it is suggested to strengthen the research on risk threshold to provide a scientific basis for the residents’health protection.

关 键 词：砷 饮用水 暴露参数 健康风险评价 风险阈值 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]