身份困境与对冲的扩展:中美战略竞争下日本对华政策的新动向  

The Dilemma of Identity and the Extension of Hedging:the New Trend of Japan’s China Policy under the Strategic Competition between China and the US

作　　者：王广涛 俞佳儒 WANG Guangtao;YU Jiaru(Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学日本研究中心,上海200433 [2]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院,上海200433

出　　处：《边界与海洋研究》2021年第4期73-90,共18页Journal of Boundary and Ocean Studies

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学基金项目“冷战后日本右翼势力的谱系构成与发展演变研究”(2018EGJ001);复旦大学本科生学术研究资助计划(FDUROP)曦源项目(项目编号:20455)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：对冲战略是考察中美战略竞争下日本对华政策动向的有益视角。当前关于对冲战略和日本对华对冲的研究或是低估了对冲战略内部的多样性,或是模糊了对冲和制衡之间的界限,或是无法解释不同领域内对冲的不同形态。对冲战略包含非极端性、相反性和避险性。"双层对冲模型"将对冲分为总体性对冲和议题内对冲,而对冲的具体选择则取决于体系层次的对抗性和单位层次的身份匹配。2017年以后日本对华政策进行了调整,日本在政治安全领域与中国身份较不匹配,因此强化了对华政策的对抗性;而在经济领域内与中国身份较为匹配,因此加强了对华关系的合作性。总的来说,日本对华总体性对冲的对冲性质更加明显。Hedging strategy is a useful perspective to examine the trend of Japan’s China policy under the strategic competition between China and the US.Current research on hedging strategy and Japan’s hedging towards China underestimates either the diversity within hedging strategy,or blurs the line between hedging and balancing,failing to explain the different forms of hedging in different fields.Hedging is non-extreme,contains contradictory policies,and aims at risk aversion.The"two-level hedging model"divides hedging into overall hedging and intra-issue hedging,while the specific choice of hedging depends on the confrontation at system level and identity matching at unit level.Japan’s China policy has been adjusted after 2017.Japan has reinforced its confrontational policy towards China as it is less well matched with China’s identity in the political and security sphere,while it has strengthened the cooperation with China as it is better matched with China’s identity within the economic sphere.In general,Japan’s overall hedging toward China has become more pronounced.

关 键 词：对冲战略 日本外交 中日关系 南海 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学] D822.331.3[政治法律—外交学]