拜登会改变特朗普的贸易政策吗?——基于产业地理视角的分析  

Will the Joe Biden Administration Change Trump’s Trade Policy?A Research Perspective Based on Industrial Geography

作　　者：余振 王净宇[1] Yu Zhen;Wang Jingyu

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院 [2]武汉大学美国加拿大经济研究所

出　　处：《美国研究》2021年第3期28-45,5,6,共20页The Chinese Journal of American Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中美经贸合作重大问题研究”(项目编号:18JZD034);武汉大学2021年国别和区域问题研究项目“美国政府贸易政策的前瞻性评估:基于拜登政府和特朗普政府的比较研究”(项目编号:WHUGBQU2021-03)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：产业地理结构是影响美国贸易政策的重要因素。过去4年中,特朗普政府的贸易政策表现出"公平和对等贸易"思想深化、贸易保护措施增加、重拾关税工具、单边施压取代多边合作、保护产业相对集中的特征。这可以通过摇摆州产业地理诉求的"放大效应"、票仓州对贸易保护的"自我加速效应"等具体的产业地理逻辑得到解释。结合2020年美国大选的结果来看,美国产业地理结构短期内保持稳定、新冠肺炎疫情下不确定性增加等特点,是影响大选最终走向的重要因素。综合考虑产业地理因素的影响和拜登的竞选承诺,美国新任政府的贸易政策大概率会呈现指向性更明确、非关税政策更多、执行力更强等新特征。In the past four years,the Donald Trump administration,in advocating for"Fair and Reciprocal Trade,"expanded protective measures and tariff tools and employed bilateral negotiations in trade policy.Because of the geographic agglomeration of American industries,the key features of the Trump administration’s trade policy can be explained by the amplification of the demands of swing states and the"acceleration effect"of the demands of safe states.Based on the perspective of industrial geography,the results of the 2020 United States presidential election also can be explained by the stability of the geographic and industrial structure in the U.S.and the enormous uncertainty shock created by COVID-19.In order to curry favor with voters,the Joe Biden Administration will also respond to the differing demands on trade policy of different states.Considering the development tendency of industrial geography in the United States and Biden’s campaign promises,the new administration will extend key Trump protectionist policies,but will show some new features such as improving U.S.trade relations with close allies and setting up more non-tariff barriers to trade.

关 键 词：美国经济 贸易政策 产业地理 特朗普 拜登 

分 类 号：F757.12[经济管理—国际贸易] D771.2[经济管理—产业经济]