考虑人群聚集时空分布的安全容量计算方法:以北京什刹海景区为例  

A method for determining safety capacity based on spatial-temporal distribution of crowds:case study in Shichahai scenic area,Beijing

作　　者：胡成[1,2] 李俊伟 李强 陈晋 HU Cheng;LI Junwei;LI Qiang;CHEN Jin(Safety&Emergency Management Lab,Beijing Municipal Institute of Labour Protection,Beijing 100054,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes&Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市劳动保护科学研究所安全与应急管理研究室,北京100054 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2021年第6期136-143,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(41977408)。

摘　　要：为防范公共场所人群过量聚集发生拥挤踩踏事件,基于公共场所人群聚集时空分布特征,考虑人群疏散时间对安全容量的影响,提出人群聚集空间不平衡系数和时间波动系数,改进瞬时安全容量和日安全容量的基本算法;以北京什刹海景区为例,分析得到校正后的瞬时安全容量和日安全容量分别为基准值的47.8%和33%。研究结果表明:人群聚集的时空分布差异是导致局部时段或特定区域人群聚集高风险的根源;考虑空间不平衡性和时间波动性有助于提高全区安全容量的精准性;案例证实改进的方法更加符合公共场所安全管理的需要。In order to prevent crowds gathering risks and trampling events in public places.Based on spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of crowds gathering in public places,unbalanced coefficient of spatial distribution and variation coefficient of temporal distribution of crowd gathering were proposed to improve safety capacity algorithm with consideration of evacuation time,basic algorithm of instantaneous safety capacity and daily safety capacity were improved.Taking Beijing Shichahai scenic spot as an example,corrected instantaneous safety capacity and daily safety capacity were respectively 47.8%and 33%of base value.The results show that difference of spatial and temporal distribution of population gathering is the root cause of high risk of population gathering in local time or specific region.Considering space unbalance and time fluctuation is helpful to improve accuracy of regional safety capacity,case proves that the improved method is more in line with the needs of safety management in public places.

关 键 词：人群聚集 安全容量 时空分布特征 人员疏散 空间不平衡系数 时间波动系数 什刹海景区 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]