Conceptual study on incorporating user information into forecasting systems  

作　　者：Jiarui HAN Qian YE Zhongwei YAN Meiyan JIAO Jiangjiang XIA 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China [2]Graduate School,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China [3]Consortium for Capacity Building,University of Colorado,Colorado 80309,USA [4]China Meteorology Administration,Beijing 100081,China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》2011年第4期533-542,共10页环境科学与工程前沿（英文）

基　　金：This work was supported by the National Department Public Benefit Research Foundation of China(GYHY200706001 and GYHY200906007).

摘　　要：The purpose of improving weather forecast isto enhance the accuracy in weather prediction.An idealforecasting system would incorporate user-end information.In recent years,the meteorological community hasbegun to realize that while general improvements to thephysical characteristics of weather forecasting systems arebecoming asymptotically limited,the improvement fromthe user end still has potential.The weather forecastingsystem should include user interaction because user needsmay change with different weather.A study was conductedon the conceptual forecasting system that included adynamic,user-oriented interactive component.Thisresearch took advantage of the recently implementedTIGGE(THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble)project in China,a case study that was conducted to test thenew forecasting system with reservoir managers in LinyiCity,Shandong Province,a region rich in rivers andreservoirs in eastern China.A self-improving forecastsystem was developed involving user feedback throughouta flood season,changing thresholds for flood-inducingrainfall that were responsive to previous weather andhydrological conditions,and dynamic user-oriented assessmentsof the skill and uncertainty inherent in weatherprediction.This paper discusses ideas for developinginteractive,user-oriented forecast systems.

关 键 词：user-end information USER-ORIENTED interactive forecasting system TIGGE(THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble) 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]