冬奥会速度滑冰短距离项目竞争格局和成绩演进研究  

Research on Competition Pattern and Achievement Evolution of Short Distance Event of Speed Skating in Winter Olympics

作　　者：庞茂勇 孙浩 赵淑君 Pang Maoyong;Sun Hao;Zhao Shujun(Sport Science College of Qufu Normal University,Qufu 273165,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学体育科学学院,山东曲阜273165

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2021年第8期195-197,共3页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

摘　　要：速度滑冰短距离项目是我国备战2022北京冬奥会的优势项目。本文采用文献资料法、数理统计法、灰色预测法等对近五届冬奥会速度滑冰短距离项目成绩进行分析。结果表明:荷兰、美国、韩国、日本、中国是近五届冬奥会获奖国家的第一集团;荷兰整体水平最高,日本、韩国崛起,前景可观,美国、德国竞争力逐渐下降,挪威等新兴势力冲击奖牌榜,中国表现稳定,具备争金夺银的潜力;主场因素的影响不容小觑;近五届速度滑冰短距离项目成绩均呈先下降后上升趋势,整体成绩态势变化较小,前三名成绩相差无几,竞争激烈;根据灰色理论预测结果,第24届冬奥会速滑短距离项目成绩将会略有提升。Short distance speed skating is a superior event in preparing for the 2022 Being Winter Olympic Games.By using the methods of literature review,mathematical statistics and grey predication,this paper analyzes the performance of short distance speed skating in recent five Winter Olympic Games.The results show that:Netherlands,the United States,South Korea,Japan and China are the first group of award-winning countries in the last five Winter Olympic Games.The overall level of Netherlands is the highest.Japan and South Korea are rising with promising prospects.The competitiveness of the United States and Germany is gradually declining.Norway and other emerging countries are impacting on the medal table.China’s performance is relatively stable and has the potential to compete for gold or silver.The home court factor can not be underestimated.The results of the events in the past five sessions all show a trend of decline and then rise.The overall performance situation has subtle change,the top three scores are almost the same,thus the competition is quite fierce.According to grey theory,the performance of short distance speed skating events in the 24th Winter Olympic Games will be slightly improved.

关 键 词：冬奥会 短距离项目 成绩演进 灰色预测 

分 类 号：G862[文化科学—体育训练]